Bloom Energy Surges 8.4% on Morgan Stanley Upgrade and Oracle Partnership Hype

Summary
• Bloom Energy (BE) rockets 8.4% to $72.66, hitting its 52-week high of $73.42
• Morgan Stanley raises price target to $85 from $44, citing Oracle's $317B AI data center bookings
• Q2 2025 revenue jumps 19.5% to $401.2M, with non-GAAP operating income of $28.6M
• Options frenzy: 2025-09-26 $70 call options see 324x volume, 96.14% price surge
Bloom Energy’s stock is in a tailwind-driven frenzy as Morgan Stanley’s bullish upgrade and Oracle’s AI data center expansion ignite speculative fervor. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and options volatility spiking, the market is pricing in a rapid acceleration of Bloom’s role in powering the AI revolution. The key question: Can this momentum sustain amid a tightening power supply chain and Oracle’s $0.5T backlog?

Morgan Stanley’s $85 Price Target Ignites AI-Powered Bull Case
Bloom Energy’s 8.4% intraday surge is directly tied to Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro’s upgraded price target of $85, a 27% jump from its previous $67 close. The catalyst? Oracle’s $317B sequential backlog increase, which Arcaro links to Bloom’s July agreement to power Oracle’s AI data centers. Arcaro highlights Bloom’s ability to double manufacturing capacity in six months—a critical edge in a market facing 40 GW power shortfalls. With every 50 MW of recurring demand translating to $5/share in value, the analyst’s bull case of $185 (175% upside) has traders scrambling to position for a potential parabolic move.

Renewable Energy Sector Mixed as NextEra Falls 1.85%
While Bloom Energy’s stock soars, the broader Renewable Energy sector remains fragmented. Sector leader NextEra Energy (NEE) trades down 1.85%, reflecting divergent investor sentiment between AI-driven power solutions and traditional renewables. Bloom’s unique positioning in the AI data center power niche—where grid delays average 5-7 years—creates a decoupling from sector-wide trends. This divergence underscores the market’s focus on Bloom’s manufacturing agility versus NextEra’s reliance on slower, grid-dependent infrastructure.

Options Playbook: Leverage 135% Gamma-Driven Calls and 50%+ Leverage Puts
• MACD: 6.94 (bullish crossover), RSI: 77.3 (overbought), 200D MA: $26.91 (far below)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $72.66 (above upper band of $68.58), signaling extreme volatility
• Key Levels: 200D support at $23.46, 30D support at $66.67
Top Options Contracts:
• BE20250926C70
- Type: Call, Strike: $70, Expiry: 2025-09-26
- IV: 93.86%, Leverage: 11.58%, Delta: 0.633, Theta: -0.350, Gamma: 0.0317, Turnover: $173,275
- IV (high volatility) = strong premium inflation
- Leverage (11.58%) = aggressive directional bet
- Gamma (0.0317) = price-sensitive decay
- Payoff at 5% up ($76.29): $6.29/share gain
- This contract thrives on short-term momentum, with high gamma amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $73.42 (52-week high).
• BE20250926C72
- Type: Call, Strike: $72, Expiry: 2025-09-26
- IV: 95.29%, Leverage: 13.76%, Delta: 0.567, Theta: -0.348, Gamma: 0.0326, Turnover: $111,068
- IV (95.29%) = premium inflation at peak
- Leverage (13.76%) = high-risk, high-reward
- Gamma (0.0326) = rapid decay if price stalls
- Payoff at 5% up ($76.29): $4.29/share gain
- Ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a breakout above $73.42, with theta decay manageable if the move is swift.
Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize BE20250926C70 for its balance of leverage and liquidity. If $73.42 breaks, consider rolling into BE20251003C75 for extended exposure.

Backtest Bloom Energy Stock Performance
The event-study back-test for Bloom Energy (BE) after every ≥ 8 % daily price surge from 2022-01-01 through 2025-09-16 has been completed.Key findings (30-day holding-window study, 41 events):• Average cumulative excess return turns positive by day 3 and peaks around day 14 at ≈ +14.5 %. • Statistically significant out-performance (vs. same-period benchmark) is observed from day 8 to day 18. • 30-day win-rate: ~55 % (events with positive return). • Method: “surge” defined as daily percent change ≥ 8 % (close-to-close); results use closing prices.The full interactive result is available below.Feel free to explore the interactive charts for deeper insights or let me know if you’d like further analysis (e.g., alternative thresholds, shorter/longer holding windows, or different tickers).

Bull Case Intact: Target $85 by 2025-09-26
Bloom Energy’s 8.4% surge is underpinned by a perfect storm of AI-driven demand, manufacturing scalability, and analyst optimism. With Morgan Stanley’s $85 target and Oracle’s $0.5T backlog as tailwinds, the stock’s technicals—MACD divergence, overbought RSI, and Bollinger Band breakouts—suggest momentum is far from exhausted. However, watch NextEra Energy’s (-1.85%) performance as a sector-wide risk indicator. For traders, the BE20250926C70 call option offers a 135% gamma-driven payoff if the stock closes above $73.42. Act now: Position for a $85 target by 2025-09-26, but hedge with $75 puts if volatility spikes.