Blockchain's "ChatGPT Moment" Could Fuel $4T Stablecoin Era: Citi

Citigroup has revised its forecast for the stablecoin market, projecting total issuance could reach $1.9 trillion in its base case and $4 trillion in a bullish scenario by 2030. This update, outlined in the bank's Citi GPS: Stablecoins 2030 report, reflects accelerated adoption driven by institutional interest, technological advancements, and the growing role of blockchain in real-world commerce. Stablecoin issuance has surged from approximately $200 billion at the start of 2025 to $280 billion as of September 2025, signaling rapid market expansion.

The bank attributes this growth to the "ChatGPT moment" for blockchain adoption, a term referencing the transformative potential of the technology in institutional finance. Citi analysts note that stablecoins are gaining traction as a tool for cross-border payments, digital asset integration, and programmable finance, particularly for corporations seeking real-time settlement and compliance features. If stablecoins achieve a velocity comparable to traditional fiat currencies, they could facilitate up to $100 trillion in annual transactions under the base case, with the bull case projecting $200 trillion.

While stablecoins are central to this vision, Citi anticipates that bank-issued tokens-such as tokenized deposits-may surpass stablecoins in transaction volumes by 2030. The report highlights that corporations increasingly prioritize regulatory safeguards and seamless integration with existing financial systems, which bank tokens inherently provide. A modest shift of traditional banking processes onto blockchain could push bank token turnover beyond $100 trillion by the end of the decade. This dynamic suggests a coexistence of stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), each serving distinct niches based on trust, interoperability, and regulatory clarity.

The U.S. dollar remains the dominant currency in on-chain finance, with most stablecoins pegged to the greenback. This dominance supports demand for U.S. Treasuries, as stablecoins function as a bridge for global liquidity. However, Citi identifies emerging hubs like China Hong Kong and the UAE as centers of innovation, where alternative regulatory frameworks and digital finance experiments are gaining momentum. These regions, along with others, are likely to diversify the on-chain financial landscape beyond U.S. dollar-centric activity.

Citi's analysis underscores that stablecoins are not poised to displace traditional banking but rather to complement and enhance it. The report emphasizes a "reimagined" financial system where digital and traditional rails coexist, driven by smarter, faster infrastructure. This evolution aligns with broader trends in fintech and corporate treasury management, where programmability, compliance, and cost efficiency are key priorities.

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Source: [1] Stablecoins 2030 - citigroup.com (https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/stablecoins-2030)

[2] Stablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030, Citi Says (https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/25/stablecoin-market-could-reach-usd4-trillion-by-2030-citi-says-in-revised-forecast)

[3] Citi Forecasts Stablecoin Market Could Reach $4 Trillion by 2030 (https://coincentral.com/citi-forecasts-stablecoin-market-could-reach-4-trillion-by-2030/)

[4] Citi Raises Stablecoin Market Cap Forecast to $4T by 2030 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/citi-forecasts-4-trillion-stablecoin-2030)

[5] Citi Lifts Stablecoin Forecast to $4 Trillion by 2030, $1.9 Trillion ... (https://financefeeds.com/citi-stablecoin-forecast-4-trillion-2030/)