Blaize Holdings’ Earnings Call: Partnership Revenue Timing, Guidance Composition, and Backlog Claims Don’t Match

Date of Call: Mar 24, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Q4: $23.8M, doubled from prior quarter. Full year: $38.6M, up significantly from $1.6M in the prior year.
• Gross Margin: Q4: 11%. Full year: 16%. Expected to average between 30%-35% by Q4 2026.

Guidance:

• Revenue for 2026 expected to be $130M, with first half lighter than second half.
• Gross margins expected to be flat in first half 2026, averaging between 30%-35% by Q4 2026.
• Adjusted EBITDA loss for 2026 expected to be between $45M-$50M.

Business Commentary:

Revenue Growth and AI Infrastructure Demand:

• Blaize Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $23.8 million for Q4 2025, exceeding guidance by $700,000, and achieving a 20 times increase from the first quarter of the same year.
• This growth was driven by strong demand across inference infrastructure, sovereign AI, and public safety applications.

Gross Margin Improvement:

• The company reported a Q4 gross margin of 11%, compared to a full-year gross margin of 16%.
• Improvement is expected to continue, with gross margins projected to reach between 30% and 35% by Q4 2026, due to a higher mix of Blaize hardware and software in AI solutions.

Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion:

• Blaize Holdings has signed agreements with key partners like Nokia and the government of Telangana, India.
• These partnerships are aimed at expanding the company's footprint in regions like Asia-Pacific and are expected to drive future revenue growth.

AI Services Platform and Revenue Model:

• The company is set to launch its Blaize AI Services platform in Q2 2026, aiming to combine inference silicon, intelligent software, and API-based AI services.
• This platform is expected to enable more efficient scaling of revenue with improving economics as services grow, shifting the revenue model towards AI outcomes rather than just infrastructure sales.

Customer Concentration and Pipeline Progress:

• The company is moving beyond initial customers, driven by the relevance of perfected use cases to a broader customer base.
• The pipeline remains significant, with new customer additions and the expectation that partnerships like Nokia will contribute to future revenue growth.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO stated: 'We delivered strong revenue growth in the second half of 2025 and continued to build momentum across our customer base.' CFO highlighted: 'We operate in a dynamic environment... We see demand across both edge and data center deployments. This creates an opportunity for recurring revenue.'

Q&A:

• Question from Gil Luria (D.A. Davidson): How would you prioritize different application types (public safety, retail, etc.) in terms of near-term focus and long-term outlook?
  Response: Priority is converting pipeline with access to customer data and POCs; near-term focus is on converting existing pipeline, medium-term is expanding business with existing customers.

• Question from Gil Luria (D.A. Davidson): What are the long-term gross margin expectations for hardware and software/services?
  Response: Long-term gross margin target is 55%+, blended hardware and software, with software/recurring revenue potentially becoming a larger mix.

• Question from Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities): What drives the $130M 2026 revenue guidance (Starshine/Yotta vs. new partnerships like Nokia)?
  Response: Guidance is supported by existing engagements and expected closes; AI services platform and Nokia partnership will contribute later, around end of 2026.

• Question from Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities): Update on $725M opportunity pipeline? Are there chip mask set costs in adjusted EBITDA guidance?
  Response: Pipeline remains significant but dynamic, impacted by geopolitical tensions; mask set (tape out) costs are for 2027+, early external costs kick in second half 2026.

• Question from Richard Shannon (Craig-Hallum Capital Group): How much of the $130M guidance is in backlog/commitments, and what's the customer concentration?
  Response: Guidance comfort comes from design wins and customer purchase orders; customer concentration is moving beyond initial customers, with use cases expanding.

• Question from Richard Shannon (Craig-Hallum Capital Group): What are the next steps with Nokia, and when will it contribute to backlog/revenue?
  Response: Joint AI platform to be demonstrated at GITEX Asia; revenue from AI Services platform, including Nokia, is expected towards end of 2026.

• Question from Chris Myers (Rosenblatt Securities): Can you discuss the broader opportunity set similar to the Nokia deal?
  Response: Similar opportunities are materializing in other regions like Africa and U.S.; solutions fit as average model size shrinks and hybrid AI is needed for business outcomes.

Contradiction Point 1

Timing of Revenue Contribution from Key Partnerships

Contradiction on when major partnership deals will start contributing revenue.

Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities) - Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q4: The AI Services platform and Nokia partnership will feature later in the year (towards the end of 2026). Revenue... from the AI Services platform... are expected to start contributing towards the end of 2026. - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO) & [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)

How much are partnerships like Starshine and Yotta contributing to the $130 million 2026 revenue guide compared to other factors like converting the Nokia MoU or traction on the new AI Services platform? - Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q3: Specific deal sizes will be announced as contracts solidify. TCC is expected to contribute revenue starting in 2026; timing depends on solution deployment. - [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Specificity of Revenue Guidance vs. Pipeline Conversion

Contradiction on the level of detail provided regarding the revenue pipeline's conversion into 2026.

Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities) - Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q4: Revenue guidance is supported by engagements expected to close during the year. - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO)

How much of the $130 million 2026 revenue guide is driven by partnerships like Starshine and Yotta versus other factors such as converting the Nokia MoU or traction on the AI Services platform? - Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q3: Conversions include continuing shipments for Starshine and Yota. The Yota/Starshine deals represent ~$160M in revenue over the next six quarters (Q4 2025 to Q1 2027). - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO) & [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Revenue Guidance Composition and Key Drivers

Contradiction on which partnerships and contracts are primary drivers for the 2026 revenue guide.

Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities) - Craig Ellis (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q4: Revenue guidance is supported by engagements expected to close during the year. The AI Services platform and Nokia partnership will feature later in the year (towards the end of 2026).Backlog management is handled closely to align with supply chain. - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO) & [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)

How much of the $130 million 2026 revenue guide is driven by partnerships like Starshine and Yotta versus factors like converting the Nokia MoU and traction on the AI Services platform? - Gil Luria (D.A. Davidson)

2025Q2: Confirmed. The hybrid AI strategy extends into data centers. Customers seek ROI, using GPUs for part of the workload and Blaze for efficiency in power, cost, and performance. This complementary approach is driving momentum. - [Deniker Munigala](CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Backlog and Contract Fulfillment Status

Contradiction on the status of major contracts and backlog levels relative to the revenue guidance.

Richard Shannon (Craig-Hallum Capital Group) - Richard Shannon (Craig-Hallum Capital Group)

2025Q4: Two large announced contracts remain, and deliveries are ongoing. Backlog management is handled closely to align with supply chain. - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO) & [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)

Relative to the $130 million 2026 guidance, how much is in backlog or committed, and how should we think about customer concentration or mix this year? - Richard Shannon (Craig Hallum Capital Group LLC)

2025Q2: The UAE MOD project is still targeted for delivery in 2026, but due to the size of recent orders, priority is given to fulfilling the Starshine and South Asia contracts first. - [Deniker Munigala](CEO) & [Harminder Sehmi](CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Revenue Timing and Backlog for Anchor Contracts

Contradiction on when revenue from major contracts begins and the state of backlog commitment.

Richard Shannon (Craig-Hallum Capital Group) - Richard Shannon (Craig-Hallum Capital Group)

2025Q4: Two large announced contracts remain, and deliveries are ongoing. Purchase order pace is determined by end-user deployment needs. Backlog management is handled closely to align with supply chain. - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO), [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)

Relative to the $130 million 2026 guidance, how much is in backlog or committed, and how should we think about customer concentration or mix this year? - Gil Luria (D.A. Davidson)

2025Q1: The deals with CBIST and Turbo Federal ... revenue expected to start towards the end of 2025 and extend into 2026. - [Harminder Sehmi](CFO), [Dinakar Munagala](CEO)