Blaize Holdings (BZAI) Surges 22.66% on Intraday Rally—What’s Fueling This AI Chipmaker’s Momentum?

Summary
• Blaize (BZAI) surges 22.66% intraday, trading at $5.90 amid $120M and $56M AI infrastructure deals in Asia.
• Rosenblatt upgrades BZAI to Buy with $6 price target, citing edge AI tech and $900M revenue pipeline.
• Options frenzy: BZAI20250815C6 sees 338 contracts traded, IV at 175.66%, and 52.08% price change ratio.

Blaize Holdings (BZAI) has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging from $5.20 to $5.90 in a single session. The stock’s 22.66% jump follows a cascade of catalysts: a $176M AI infrastructure deal pipeline, a Rosenblatt upgrade to Buy, and aggressive options positioning. With a 5.88% turnover rate and a 52-week high of $19.25 looming, traders are scrambling to decode whether this is a short-term spike or a breakout play.

Analyst Upgrade and $176M AI Contracts Ignite BZAI’s Intraday Surge
Blaize’s meteoric rise stems from a perfect storm of analyst upgrades and blockbuster deals. Rosenblatt’s upgrade to Buy—raising its price target from $3 to $6—highlighted the company’s edge AI technology and a $900M revenue pipeline through 2027. Simultaneously, Blaize announced a $120M AI infrastructure deal with Starshine Computing in Asia and a $56M smart city contract in Southeast Asia. These agreements, coupled with a $104M defense contract in the Gulf, forced the company to raise FY2025 revenue guidance to $35M. Institutional investors, including Goldman Sachs and Temasek, have also added stakes, signaling confidence in the firm’s execution. The stock’s 5.90 intraday high now sits just 66% below its 52-week high of 19.25, creating a powerful narrative of undervaluation.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as BZAI Soars on AI Momentum
While the broader semiconductor sector remains volatile, Blaize’s rally is decoupling from its peers. The sector leader, Nvidia (NVDA), is down 0.25% intraday, reflecting profit-taking after its AI dominance. However, Blaize’s edge AI focus—positioned for edge-to-core optimization—has drawn attention as TSMC shifts focus to advanced packaging and ASML warns of 2026 growth risks. Unlike TSMC’s GaN exit or Intel’s restructuring, Blaize’s contracts in smart cities and defense align with immediate revenue visibility. This divergence suggests Blaize’s surge is driven by idiosyncratic factors rather than sector-wide optimism.

Options Frenzy and ETF Leverage: How to Play the BZAI Bull Run
• MACD: 0.26 (above signal line 0.14), RSI: 81.06 (overbought), Bollinger Upper: 3.895 (far below current price 5.90).
• 200-day MA: Empty (historical data incomplete), but 30D MA at 2.77 (well below current price).

Blaize’s technicals scream bullish momentum. The RSI at 81.06 suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD histogram at 0.115 and rising price action indicate strong trend continuation. Traders should focus on key levels: the 200D MA (unknown) as a critical support test, and the 52-week high at 19.25 as a distant but symbolic target. The stock’s 5.88% turnover rate and 38.8M volume suggest liquidity is sufficient for leveraged plays.

Top Options Contracts:
• BZAI20250815C6: Call, strike 6.00, expiry 2025-08-15, IV 175.66%, leverage 5.46%, delta 0.588, theta -0.025, gamma 0.1395, turnover 26,690.
- IV (175.66%): High implied volatility suggests strong expectation of price movement.
- Leverage (5.46%): Amplifies returns relative to stock price.
- Delta (0.588): Mid-range sensitivity to price changes.
- Gamma (0.1395): High sensitivity to gamma means delta will rise sharply if price moves up.
- Turnover (26,690): High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit.
- Payoff (5% upside): If BZAI hits $6.195 (5% above 5.90), intrinsic value = 0.195; total payoff = 0.195 / 6 = 3.25% return, amplified by leverage.
- Why it stands out: This contract balances high IV, moderate delta, and strong liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the current rally.

• BZAI20250919C6: Call, strike 6.00, expiry 2025-09-19, IV 141.30%, leverage 4.41%, delta 0.613, theta -0.012, gamma 0.111, turnover 27,383.
- IV (141.30%): High but slightly lower than August contract, offering a balance between cost and potential.
- Delta (0.613): Closer to 1, indicating strong directional exposure.
- Gamma (0.111): High enough to benefit from price acceleration.
- Turnover (27,383): Comparable liquidity to August contract.
- Payoff (5% upside): Same intrinsic value of 0.195, but with a longer expiry to absorb volatility.
- Why it stands out: Offers a longer time horizon (September expiry) for the rally to play out, with slightly lower IV costs but similar leverage and liquidity.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target the BZAI20250815C6 for a short-term breakout above $6.00, while the BZAI20250919C6 provides a safer, longer-duration play if the momentum persists.

Backtest Blaize Holdings Stock Performance
The backtest of BZAI's performance after a 23% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-Day win rate is 35.85%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.06%, and the 30-Day win rate is 52.83%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the actual returns over these periods are negative: -0.64% over 3 days, 2.66% over 10 days, and 21.44% over 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest period was 44.06% on day 59, suggesting that while there is potential for gains, there is also a significant risk of losses following a large intraday surge.

BZAI’s Bullish Catalysts Remain Intact—Act Now Before the Window Closes
Blaize’s surge is underpinned by a combination of analyst upgrades, blockbuster contracts, and institutional backing. The stock’s 5.90 intraday high is a mere 66% below its 52-week high of 19.25, creating a compelling narrative for those betting on a multi-year AI infrastructure boom. However, the RSI at 81.06 and MACD divergence suggest a pullback is possible if the 5.90 level fails to hold. Traders should monitor the BZAI20250815C6 options for liquidity shifts and watch for a break above $6.00, which could trigger a 50%+ move toward 8.85 (50% from 5.90). Meanwhile, the sector leader Nvidia (NVDA) is down 0.25%, indicating broader chipmaker volatility. For now, BZAI’s momentum is self-sustaining—buy the breakout above $6.00 or options with IV over 140% to capitalize on the AI narrative.