Blackstone Rises 3.68% To $163.98 In Two-Day 6.64% Rally As Technicals Turn Bullish

Blackstone (BX) concluded the latest session with a 3.68% gain to $163.98, marking its second consecutive day of advances and bringing the two-day rally to 6.64%. This positive momentum follows a period of heightened volatility evident throughout the historical dataset, necessitating a multi-indicator technical assessment to evaluate the sustainability and potential trajectory of the current move.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals significant patterns. The October 10th session formed a long red candle closing near its low ($153.77 after testing $161.4), suggesting strong selling pressure. This was followed by a hammer-like candle on October 13th (open near low at $154.44, close near high at $158.16), signaling potential exhaustion of sellers. The subsequent two green candles, including today's strong close just below the daily high ($165.09 vs. close $163.98), indicate bullish follow-through. Key resistance is established around the October 7th/8th consolidation near $164.90-$166.00, coinciding with highs from early October. Support resides near $156.00-$157.00, reinforced by the late September swing lows and the October 10th low of $153.16. A clear breach above $166 would suggest bullish continuation.
Moving Average Theory
The 200-day moving average (long-term trend proxy) remains upward-sloping, affirming the primary bullish trend. However, shorter-term moving averages present a nuanced picture: the price has recently reclaimed the 50-day MA and is challenging the 100-day MA. Currently trading above the 50-day, a sustained break above the flat-to-declining 100-day MA would strengthen the near-term bullish case. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day averages around $158-$160 creates a significant intermediate support zone. A breakdown below this level could signal a resumption of the short-term downtrend seen from the September highs.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has transitioned into positive territory above its signal line over the past two sessions, generating a nascent bullish crossover. This shift supports the idea of building upward momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator exited oversold territory (K and D lines below 20) in recent days and now shows K > D lines climbing upwards, reflecting improving short-term momentum. While both oscillators signal a shift towards bullishness, neither is yet in overbought conditions, suggesting room for further upside potential. The KDJ %J line, however, is nearing overbought levels (>80), warranting some caution for short-term pullbacks.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted significantly preceding the sharp sell-off on October 10th, a classic signal of low volatility preceding a volatile move. Following this, the bands expanded during the subsequent two-day plunge and have started to widen again during the recent recovery, signaling a return of volatility. Price has rebounded from the lower band near $153 and is now pushing towards the middle band (~$160) and upper band (~$166). A move towards or breaching the upper band would signal strengthening momentum, while any rejection near the middle band could suggest the rally is losing steam. Band expansion favors continuation of the current directional move.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent rally shows mixed volume signals. While the price surge on October 14th occurred on increased volume (4.66M shares vs. 3.40M on Oct 13th), this volume remains below the elevated levels seen during the significant down-day on October 10th (6.61M shares). The bounce attempts off support near $153-$156 occurred on relatively lower volume. For the current rally to be considered robust, confirming volume expansion is needed, particularly on any decisive break above the $166 resistance. The lack of significant volume divergence during the rally so far is neutral to slightly positive but requires monitoring.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI, calculated using the standard formula based on average gains and losses, has recovered notably. It bottomed around 30 (oversold) after the October 10th sell-off and currently reads near 55. This neutral position, comfortably above oversold territory but shy of overbought (70+), suggests momentum has shifted upwards without becoming extreme. The recovery trajectory supports the bullish bias. It provides confirmation of improving momentum without flashing immediate reversal warnings typical of the overbought condition.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant swing down from the September peak near $190 (September 24th high of $186.1, use $186 as proxy) to the recent low near $153.16 (October 10th low) yields key levels. The immediate rebound encountered resistance near the 23.6% retracement level ($161.30). The recent push above $163 places BX firmly within the 38.2% retracement zone ($162.37). The critical hurdle lies at the 50% retracement level ($169.58), aligning closely with the psychologically significant $170 level and the September-October breakdown point. Strong resistance is expected in the $168-$171 confluence zone. Major support below the recent low lies near the 100% extension or deeper retracements converging around the $150-$155 support area identified earlier.
Confluence & Divergence Synthesis
A key area of multi-indicator confluence exists around $150-$155: the Fibonacci 0% level (recent low), prior swing lows, and the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs provide solid support. The breach below $157-$158 proved temporary, and the subsequent recovery was signaled by bullish candlestick reversal signals (hammer) coinciding with oversold KDJ and RSI readings and a positive MACD crossover. The rally faces its next major test near $166-$170, where the upper Bollinger Band, the Fibonacci 50%/61.8% retracements, and the descending trendline resistance from September highs converge. Volume needs to increase decisively on an approach to this zone to signal conviction. While indicators like MACD, KDJ, and RSI align positively currently, a divergence would form if price reaches the $168-$170 resistance without corresponding strength in momentum oscillators or volume. Monitoring for such divergence will be critical for assessing the potential for a reversal at that resistance. Probabilistically, the current weight of evidence supports continued near-term upside towards $166-$170, though overcoming that resistance zone poses a more significant challenge requiring stronger fundamental catalysts or persistent momentum.