BlackRock: What Impact Will The US Election Have On The Yield In 2020?
1min read BlackRock said that the tension surrounding the 2024 US election is heating up, and that the political showdown not only foreshadows a reshaping of the US political landscape, but also has far-reaching implications for the global political and economic landscape, and may bring more uncertainty to the stock market. The US election cycle has its own unique internal logic, and the summer weakness of the stock market often improves in the fall. BlackRock believes that this may be related to investors' anticipation of the election, and the market is more affected by the election until the party conventions and the real start of the fall campaign.
BlackRock pointed out that historical data shows that May to September is usually the "weaker period" for the S&P 500, with an average monthly return of about 0.1%, far below the average monthly return of about 1% in other months. However, in the special context of "election year", this seasonal pattern will usually shift from summer to fall. Although benefiting from the strong momentum of corporate earnings growth in the US this year, the S&P 500 has shown decent performance under the support of economic resilience. However, in this year of great uncertainty, investors need to be more vigilant about some seasonal factors and major events coming up.
In addition, BlackRock said that market sentiment also has a significant impact on short-term investment volatility. Facing high inflation, the adjustment of the Fed's policy and the intensification of geopolitical risks, investors' sentiment gradually turned cautious.