BlackRock Warns Bitcoin Faces 10-20 Year Quantum Threat

In a significant development, BlackRock has added a new line to its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) filing, highlighting quantum computing as a potential risk to Bitcoin’s long-term security. The update, submitted in early May 2025, warns that advancements in quantum technology could compromise the cryptographic systems that secure Bitcoin, potentially undermining the viability of the cryptographic algorithms used not just in digital assets but across the global tech stack. This is the first time the world’s largest asset manager has directly addressed this threat in a Bitcoin-related disclosure, indicating the seriousness with which institutional players are considering future-proofing crypto.

Quantum computers operate differently from traditional computers, processing vast numbers of possibilities simultaneously, making them particularly effective at cracking codes. Bitcoin’s security relies on two major cryptographic systems: SHA-256 and ECDSA. These systems secure Bitcoin addresses and ensure that only authorized transactions are processed. However, a powerful quantum computer could potentially reverse-engineer a private key from a public address, especially during the brief window after a transaction is broadcast but before it is confirmed on the blockchain. This could allow someone to hijack a transaction and steal coins.

While this threat is not immediate, most researchers agree that quantum machines capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography are at least 10-20 years away. Nevertheless, the crypto community is already taking steps to prepare. Roughly a quarter of existing Bitcoin sits in older wallet formats that could be more vulnerable if quantum leaps happen faster than expected. Work is underway on post-quantum cryptography, which aims to develop security systems that can withstand the next generation of computing.

The crypto industry is actively gearing up for the quantum threat. Developers are exploring ideas such as the Quantum-Resistant Address Migration Protocol (QRAMP), which would push users to move their coins from older, potentially vulnerable wallet formats into addresses protected by newer, quantum-safe algorithms. This would require a hard fork, but it is a serious plan to future-proof the network before a so-called “Q-Day” arrives. Some blockchains, like Algorand and the Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL), have already integrated post-quantum digital signature algorithms, ensuring that their transactions are backed by encryption that could hold up even if quantum machines go live tomorrow.

Implementing quantum-safe cryptography is not straightforward. Algorithms like Falcon are compact and efficient but require more computing resources than traditional ones. Switching everyone—miners, exchanges, wallet apps, and individual users—to a new cryptographic standard could be a logistical nightmare unless it is planned years in advance. There is a delicate balance to strike: move too soon and risk breaking things or relying on untested technology; wait too long and be exposed to the threat. Many in the space are eyeing a 10-to-20-year window as a rough estimate for when quantum computing becomes a real threat, but nobody wants to be the last to prepare.

Preparation for a post-quantum world involves testing and integrating quantum-resistant algorithms into existing systems. Some are experimenting with “hybrid” approaches, using both traditional and post-quantum cryptography side by side. For crypto businesses, the job is to ensure their infrastructure is future-proof and to educate users about the upcoming changes. Migrating keys and updating protocols is not something the average holder can do alone. Regulatory support is also crucial. The NIST finalized several post-quantum cryptographic standards in 2024, providing a starting point for the industry. However, clear regulatory guidelines on how and when to implement these standards are still needed.

BlackRock’s inclusion of quantum risk in its ETF filing underscores the urgency of the situation. The transition to a quantum-resistant crypto world will be slow and full of technical challenges, but it is necessary. Waiting until quantum computers are actively breaking SHA-256 would already be too late. The message is clear: the industry must start preparing for a post-quantum world now to ensure the long-term security of digital assets.