BlackRock Global Macro Director: Skeptical of Bitcoin's 'Four-Year Cycle End' Theory, $65,000 Will Be the Trend Low

Bitcoin’s institutional investment landscape is shifting as major asset managers such as BlackRock continue to add exposure. The firm has recently accumulated nearly $900 million in Bitcoin, signaling a return to stronger buying after a drawdown at year-end. This move aligns with broader trends of increased demand for Bitcoin through ETFs and corporate treasuries.

Long-term selling pressure in the Bitcoin market has also slowed to levels last seen in 2017, as older coins remain off exchanges. Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metrics show reduced activity among long-term holders, suggesting a potential stabilizing trend.

Bitcoin’s price has shown mixed signals in early 2026. While spot ETFs attracted $1.2 billion in inflows within the first two trading days of the year, some funds have shown signs of cooling. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the inflows, reinforcing its dominant position in the space.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin ETF inflows have historically acted as a supply sponge, reducing the amount of circulating Bitcoin available for trading. This dynamic is seen as one of the key drivers of institutional adoption, as steady inflows create a floor for Bitcoin’s price. Analysts suggest that if these inflows continue, they could support a six-figure price range for Bitcoin in 2026.

The recent accumulation by BlackRock and others indicates a strategic re-entry into the market after a late-year drawdown. This move follows a broader trend of long-term selling pressure easing and may suggest that institutional buyers are seeing value in Bitcoin at current price levels.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market observers are closely monitoring Bitcoin ETF inflows and institutional buying patterns to gauge the asset’s long-term trajectory. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg ETFs estimates 2026 inflows could range between $20 billion and $70 billion, depending on price action.

Bitcoin’s price volatility remains a point of debate. Some analysts argue that the four-year price cycle is no longer as relevant due to the growing influence of institutional flows and macroeconomic factors. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has stated the four-year cycle is now obsolete, with Bitcoin’s volatility increasingly resembling that of traditional financial assets.

Others, such as BlackRock’s Global Macro Director, remain skeptical about the end-of-cycle narrative and suggest $65,000 could serve as a key support level in the near term. This view contrasts with bullish forecasts from some industry executives who expect Bitcoin to reach as high as $225,000 in 2026.

What Could Trigger a Major Move?

Investors are watching for several catalysts that could drive a new bull phase or reinforce a bearish trend. These include regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and structural shifts in institutional investment behavior.

If the U.S. government makes further institutional purchases of Bitcoin or if more major firms like Morgan Stanley continue to enter the space, the asset could see increased legitimacy and adoption. Conversely, external shocks such as a bursting AI bubble or renewed interest rate hikes could trigger a more severe correction.

On the other hand, continued ETF inflows, falling volatility, and growing real-world adoption could help Bitcoin maintain a higher floor, supporting a more stable price environment for institutional investors.

Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving as more capital flows into the space through regulated channels. With BlackRock, Fidelity, and others continuing to build positions, the asset may be entering a new phase where institutional demand becomes a more predictable force than speculative cycles.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin’s price can establish a new upward trend or if it faces further consolidation before a potential breakout.