Black Rifle Coffee's Turnaround Hopes Rest on Matthew Amigh's Proven Turnaround Tactics

Black Rifle Coffee Company (BRCC) is at a crossroads. After years of rapid expansion fueled by patriotic branding and a loyal customer base, the company now faces declining revenue, margin pressures, and a stock price under scrutiny. The appointment of Matthew Amigh as CFO—fresh off a successful turnaround of Bulletproof 360 and a decade-long stint at Raybern Foods—marks a critical pivot. Can Amigh's track record of transforming underperforming brands into profitable entities justify a “Buy” rating, or does BRCC's current困境 require more than financial discipline?

The Case for Amigh: A Proven Turnaround Artist

Amigh's résumé is a blueprint for operational rehabilitation. At Bulletproof 360 (2020–2025), he inherited a company in crisis: a $20 million annual loss, cash flow strains, and a brand struggling to compete in the crowded health-and-wellness space. His playbook was methodical:
1. Cost Restructuring: Cut overhead by 30% through process automation and supply chain optimization.
2. Strategic Growth: Invested in high-margin, eco-conscious products like compostable espresso pods, which aligned with consumer trends and drove a 2.3x revenue jump to $35 million by 2025.
3. Capital Efficiency: Secured a $13M Series D round and a $25M debt facility, stabilizing liquidity while avoiding over-leverage.

The result? EBITDA margins surged from 12% to 25% over five years, culminating in a sale to Australian firm AC3—a deal that, while lacking disclosed terms, underscores investor confidence in Amigh's ability to monetize turnaround successes.

At Raybern Foods (2010–2020), Amigh's role as CFO and COO saw him slash operating expenses by 20% via automation and lean supply chains. He also reduced debt through disciplined capital allocation, positioning the company for a profitable exit. These dual successes—balancing cost discipline with strategic growth—are precisely what BRCC needs.

BRCC's Crossroads: Challenges and Catalysts

BRCC's Q1 2025 results highlight the urgency: Adjusted EBITDA plummeted to $0.9 million from $12.5 million a year earlier, as revenue stagnated at $120 million. The company faces two existential risks:
1. Margin Erosion: Input costs for coffee beans and logistics have outpaced pricing power.
2. Over-Reliance on Debt: BRCC's leverage ratio (estimated at 4x EBITDA, based on prior filings) leaves little room for error in a rising-rate environment.

Amigh's appointment is a direct response. His mandate? Replicate Bulletproof's playbook:
- Supply Chain Overhaul: Streamline logistics and negotiate better terms with suppliers.
- Product Innovation: Leverage the Keurig Dr Pepper partnership (announced in 2024) to expand distribution and co-develop high-margin ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee lines.
- Debt Management: Refinance existing obligations at lower rates or extend maturities, reducing refinancing risks.

Catalysts like the Keurig collaboration—which could unlock national retail distribution—align with Amigh's strategy of leveraging partnerships to scale without overextending capital. Similarly, new product launches, such as cold-brew variants, mirror Bulletproof's success in tapping niche markets.

Risks and Realities

While Amigh's expertise is a positive, two risks remain unresolved:
1. Competitive Pressure: BRCC operates in a crowded space. Starbucks and smaller challengers like Stio Coffee are aggressively marketing similar “premium” narratives.
2. Brand Resonance: The company's military-themed branding, while loyal to its core base, may limit broader consumer appeal—a hurdle even Amigh's financial acumen can't fix alone.

The Investment Thesis: Buy with Caution

Amigh's track record suggests BRCC could stabilize margins and reduce leverage within 18–24 months. If the Keurig partnership delivers on its promise of expanded distribution and the company's EBITDA recovers to pre-2024 levels ($10–12 million annually), the stock—currently trading at a 40% discount to its 2020 peak—could rebound.

However, the path is fraught. Investors should monitor two key metrics:
- EBITDA Margins: A return to 15%+ by 2026 would validate Amigh's cost-cutting efforts.
- Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: A reduction to 2.5x or below would signal financial resilience.

Final Verdict

Amigh's appointment is a credible step toward turnaround, but BRCC's recovery hinges on execution. For investors, this is a Hold with a “Buy” catalyst tied to the Keurig partnership's success and margin improvements. The risks are real, but the stakes are high: a disciplined Amigh-led BRCC could prove a compelling contrarian play in 2026—if it can turn its brand's passion into profit.

Rating: Hold (With Upside Potential)
Key Metrics to Watch: Q3 2025 EBITDA, Keurig revenue contribution, and debt refinancing progress.