The Black Friday Trade 2025: When the Underdog Becomes the Champion

Previously, we published a comprehensive backtest of a simple seasonal trading strategy: buying retail and consumer stocks exactly two weeks before Thanksgiving and selling two weeks after. Using ten years of historical data (2015-2024), we identified which companies consistently captured holiday shopping momentum and which ones merely came along for the ride. Previous Article: The Black Friday Trade: Which Retail Stocks Actually Win During the Holiday Shopping Surge?

Now, the 2025 results are in and they've rewritten the playbook in dramatic fashion.

The 2025 Results: A Complete Role Reversal

From November 14 to December 12, 2025, the strategy produced its most polarized results in recent memory, with returns ranging from -5.67% to an absolutely explosive 60.73%. Here's how each stock performed:

The Shocking Winner: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) +60.73%

In what can only be described as a stunning reversal, Abercrombie & Fitch a company with just a 50% historical win rate in this strategy delivered the single best performance of the 2025 season. The 60.73% return in less than a month wasn't just impressive; it was the kind of move that validates why high-variance retailers can still produce asymmetric returns when they execute perfectly.

What changed? ANF has undergone a dramatic brand transformation over the past few years, shifting from its controversial "cool kids only" image to a more inclusive, quality-focused positioning. The company has successfully captured millennial and Gen Z consumers who remember the brand from their youth but now find it relevant again. When a retailer undergoing a turnaround hits the holiday season with the right product mix and consumer sentiment, the results can be explosive and 2025 proved exactly that.

The Comeback Story: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) +44.99%

American Eagle, which struggled in 2024 with a -5.91% loss during this same window, came roaring back with a 44.99% gain. This dramatic swing highlights the boom-or-bust nature of teen and young adult apparel retailers. AEO's success suggests the company correctly anticipated 2025 fashion trends and inventory management critical factors that can make or break a retailer's quarter.

The brand's Aerie sub-brand, focused on body-positive activewear and loungewear, has become a significant growth driver. Combined with successful denim trends and improved store experiences, AEO demonstrated that when apparel retailers get it right, they can still deliver market-beating returns even in an increasingly digital shopping landscape, tapping Sydney Sweeney for the denim campaign didn't hurt.

The Traditional Retail Redemption: Macy's (M) +20.81%

Macy's posted a solid 20.81% gain, reinforcing its position as a reliable holiday season performer despite ongoing challenges in department store retail. The company's "Polaris" turnaround strategy, focusing on smaller-format stores and enhanced digital capabilities, appears to be gaining traction with consumers.

What makes Macy's result particularly noteworthy is context this performance came during a period when consumer spending showed signs of selectivity and caution. The gain suggests that Macy's promotional strategy and brand partnerships resonated with deal-seeking holiday shoppers who still value the treasure-hunt experience of department store shopping.

The Steady Premium Performers

Lululemon (LULU) +20.09%, Ralph Lauren (RL) +11.69%, and Shopify (SHOP) +15.70% all delivered respectable double-digit returns that aligned closely with their historical patterns. These results reinforce a key insight from our original analysis: premium brands with pricing power and loyal customer bases tend to produce consistent, if unspectacular, holiday momentum.

Lululemon's performance is particularly interesting given the athletic apparel market's maturation. The 20%+ gain suggests that despite increased competition from both established brands and upstart challengers, LULU's community-building approach and product innovation continue to drive holiday gift purchases.

Nike (NKE) +5.14% posted modest gains that, while positive, significantly underperformed its peers. This reflects ongoing challenges the brand faces with inventory management, retail partner relationships, and competition from newer athletic brands that have captured younger consumers' attention.

The Fallen Champions: When Historical Winners Stumble

The most shocking results came from the strategy's historical standouts. Etsy (ETSY), the decade-long champion with a 90% win rate, posted a -5.67% loss. Amazon (AMZN), already the weakest historical performer, declined -3.62%. These losses are particularly notable because they occurred during what should have been an ideal environment for e-commerce platforms.

What Changed Between 2024 and 2025?

Comparing the 2024 and 2025 results reveals fascinating shifts in consumer behavior and market sentiment:

2024's Top Performers:

Lululemon (LULU): +22.38%

Etsy (ETSY): +18.84%

Amazon (AMZN): +13.01%

2025's Top Performers:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): +60.73%

American Eagle (AEO): +44.99%

Macy's (M): +20.81%

The role reversal is striking. In 2024, premium athletic wear and niche e-commerce dominated. In 2025, traditional mall brands and department stores made a comeback.

The Bottom Line

The 2025 Black Friday trading strategy results serve as a powerful reminder that markets constantly evolve, consumer preferences shift, and yesterday's winners can become today's laggards. Abercrombie & Fitch's explosive 60.73% return and Etsy's surprising -5.67% loss demonstrate that even well-researched seasonal strategies require flexibility and risk management.

The two-week window around Thanksgiving continues to provide genuine opportunities for outperformance, but success requires thoughtful position sizing, diversification across multiple retail segments, and the discipline to accept that not every position will work even when historical data suggests it should. The seasonal trading opportunity remains real. The challenge, as always, is execution.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All trading strategies carry risk of loss.

Ready to test your own trading ideas? Explore AInvest's Backtest tool and discover what the data reveals about your strategy before you risk a single dollar in the real market.

The ten stocks analyzed in this backtest were identified using AInvest's Stock Screener, specifically a pre-built screen called "Black Friday Bonanza" designed for retail and consumer companies most likely to benefit from holiday shopping momentum.