Black Friday Bargains: Three Growth Stocks Offering Over 40% Discounts in 2025

Three stocks stand out as potential "Black Friday" bargains after sharp 2025 declines, offering valuation discounts while retaining core growth stories. The Trade Desk (TTD) trades at a deep 19x forward earnings multiple following a 70% plunge in share price. This cheapens the stock significantly despite the digital advertising company reporting 20% revenue growth and demonstrating solid customer retention in prior periods. Duolingo (DUOL) offers a 23x forward P/E ratio after a 46% correction, underpinned by impressive historical revenue growth exceeding 40% in prior periods, though recent guidance weakness and operating margin pressure present near-term headwinds. Chipotle (CMG) trades at its lowest free cash flow multiple in 14 years, reflecting a 45% discount, even as the restaurant chain faces slowing growth; its forward-looking opportunity, however, lies in a planned 10% increase in new store openings in 2026.

While these deep discounts make positions more attractive, each faces distinct near-term challenges that temper overly optimistic expectations. TTD's market was also recently marked by a cut to its mid-year guidance, a factor contributing to the share price weakness. For DUOL, the path to sustainable profitability remains uncertain due to significant investments in content and technology, despite strong user engagement numbers not repeated here. Chipotle's expansion plans come with execution risks and the potential for wage inflation, even as they represent a clear growth vector for the future. The combination of discounted valuations and underlying growth fundamentals creates a compelling, though not risk-free, entry point for investors favoring these sectors.

Growth Engine Analysis

This section examines the sustainability of each company's core drivers, building on valuation context established earlier. While all three trade at significant discounts, their near-term momentum and execution challenges differ markedly.

Duolingo's massive 135 million monthly active users provide a deep well for organic growth, but the platform's cost efficiency is becoming increasingly critical. The company faces mounting pressure to reduce its high customer acquisition costs while maintaining engagement across this large user base. According to analysis, while user scale is impressive, the path to sustained profitability hinges on improving operational leverage, particularly as the free-to-play market intensifies. Weak guidance earlier this year signaled investor concerns about monetization velocity at current scale.

This visual metaphor helps contextualize the scale of opportunity and the cost pressures driving performance expectations.

Chipotle's planned 10% store expansion represents a strategic bet on substitution demand within the fast-casual segment. By aggressively increasing locations, the company aims to capture market share from competitors, leveraging its strong brand and proprietary supply chain. This growth strategy could be undermined by slower-than-expected unit economics in new markets and rising labor costs. The execution risk is heightened by the restaurant's already-broad footprint, forcing management to carefully calibrate new site selection and menu innovation to avoid cannibalization.

The Trade Desk maintains profitable operations despite industry consolidation, a notable achievement in a sector undergoing significant shakeups. Its forward earnings multiple now reflects a substantial correction since the sector peak, offering a buffer against potential near-term headwinds. However, the digital advertising market remains highly competitive, with pressure on margins from both tech giants and emerging programmatic platforms. The company's ability to sustain its profitability edge will depend on winning new platform partnerships and defending its core publisher relationships.

Retail 2025: Pattern Shifts & Digital Infrastructure Catalysts

The 2025 holiday shopping season opened with record-breaking interest but muted spending enthusiasm. Black Friday drew 186.9 million shoppers, but elevated prices and tariff pressures significantly reduced promotional intensity compared to prior years. Consumers prioritized essentials, with average spending projected at $890 per person – a slight decline from 2024. This cautious approach forced retailers to adapt quickly, with many launching promotions earlier than usual to capture budget-conscious buyers.

Shopping behavior has fundamentally shifted towards digital channels. Thirty percent of consumers planned to shop exclusively online this Black Friday, fueling projected $11.7 billion in e-commerce sales. Mobile devices dominated transactions, accounting for 63% of all online purchases. AI-driven personalization and email marketing emerged as critical conversion tools, with 59% of consumers reporting email influenced their purchasing decisions. Crucially, 42% of shoppers blended online and in-store experiences, creating demand for seamless omnichannel fulfillment capabilities.

Digital infrastructure providers stand to benefit disproportionately from these structural shifts. The surge in mobile transactions (63%) and AI-powered personalization requires robust backend systems that can handle massive transaction volumes and deliver real-time customer experiences. Companies enabling secure mobile payments, cloud-based inventory management, and personalized recommendation engines position themselves as essential partners for retailers navigating this complex landscape. Analysts recognize these underlying trends, noting that retailers with superior digital infrastructure and agile fulfillment networks will capture market share despite the challenging pricing environment.

However, significant headwinds persist across the sector. Tariff pressures continue to squeeze retailer margins, forcing difficult trade-off decisions between maintaining prices and absorbing costs. While off-price retailers like TJX and Burlington are gaining share through affordability, their success comes with margin compression. Additionally, lower-income households are delaying discretionary purchases further, creating uncertainty around Cyber Monday projections. The conversion of heightened digital engagement into sustained long-term value remains unproven, particularly as consumers demonstrate continued price sensitivity. Retailers must balance aggressive digital investments against near-term profitability pressures while navigating an unpredictable macroeconomic backdrop.

Risk Assessment & Action Framework

The market has priced in severe near-term headwinds for several high-growth names, creating compelling valuation opportunities but demanding disciplined monitoring of execution risks and macro constraints. The Trade Desk (TTD) trades at just 19x forward earnings following a brutal 70% decline, despite posting 20% revenue growth and maintaining strong customer retention. This extreme discount raises questions about whether near-term ad-tech slowdown and intensifying competition from Amazon have been overpriced. Similarly, Chipotle (CMG) offers a rare free cash flow multiple at its lowest in 14 years after a 45% stock drop, but its ambitious 10% store expansion plan faces heightened execution risk amid broader restaurant industry headwinds and inflationary pressures on labor and supplies.

These valuation narratives operate against a macro backdrop where tariffs are suppressing Black Friday discounts and forcing consumers into bargain hunting. While overall shopper numbers hit a record 186.9 million, average household spending dropped slightly to $890 as tariffs and high prices squeezed budgets, with shoppers increasingly prioritizing essentials and value retailers. This environment creates a double-edged sword: while value-oriented retailers like TJX and Burlington are expected to thrive on discount-driven sales, it also raises concerns about whether Chipotle's premium positioning can fully weather this price-sensitive climate.

The key catalyst for exiting caution appears to be earnings resilience. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan analysts point to retailers demonstrating actual market share gains through competitive pricing and promotions as critical triggers. For Chipotle, sustained same-store sales growth and successful execution of its expansion plan would signal operational strength despite macro friction. For TTD, clear evidence that its customer retention metrics and dollar-based net expansion rates remain robust would help rebuild confidence in its long-term ad-tech dominance, even against Amazon's growing clout. Investors should remain alert to quarterly earnings beats and concrete evidence that these companies are gaining share in their respective markets, as these developments could justify shifting from a defensive stance to a more aggressive one.