BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) Earnings: Key Metrics and Risks to Watch

Investors are set to scrutinize BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) first-quarter 2025 earnings report, scheduled for release after market close on May 1, 2025. This report will provide critical insights into the casual dining chain’s performance amid a challenging sector landscape. Below are the key metrics and factors investors should monitor to assess BJRI’s trajectory.

1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Revenue: The Bottom Line

Analysts project $0.39 in EPS, a 21.9% year-over-year increase, driven by cost controls and menu innovation. Revenue is expected to rise 3.1% to $347.88 million, reflecting modest top-line growth. A beat on both metrics could alleviate concerns about declining profitability, while a miss might reignite skepticism about the company’s ability to navigate rising labor and food costs.

2. Analyst Sentiment and Estimate Revisions

Recent trends paint a cautious picture: the consensus EPS estimate has been downgraded 0.67% over the past 30 days, and Zacks’ Earnings ESP model predicts an -8.70% surprise, suggesting a higher likelihood of a miss. This contrasts with BJRI’s strong track record of beating EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a +34.29% surprise in its prior report. Investors will assess whether downward revisions reflect temporary headwinds or structural challenges.

3. Historical Performance and Zacks Analysis

Despite a Q4 2024 EPS miss of $0.15, BJRI’s revenue beat and history of outperforming expectations underscore operational resilience. However, its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and negative Earnings ESP signal mixed signals. Historically, stocks with a #3 rank and negative ESP have a low likelihood of beating estimates, though BJRI’s ability to outperform in the past offers some optimism.

4. Management’s Guidance and Call Insights

The May 1 earnings call will be pivotal. Key topics include:
- ROCE (Return on Capital Employed): The metric has declined to 3.8% (from 5.3% five years ago), lagging the industry average. Management must address whether this reflects temporary inefficiencies or long-term structural issues.
- Same-store sales trends: A key indicator of demand amid rising competition and shifting consumer preferences.
- Cost controls: Labor and food inflation remain top risks; any progress here could bolster margins.
- Growth strategy: Expansion plans and new menu initiatives (e.g., craft beer programs) will signal future revenue potential.

5. Valuation and Growth Prospects

BJRI’s trailing P/E of 29.6 and forward P/E of 29.3 reflect investor optimism about its 16.67% EPS growth forecast to $1.47 next year. However, these valuations hinge on execution. If results disappoint, the stock could face pressure, especially with the S&P 500 outperforming BJRI’s 1-year return of 0.06%.

6. Peer Comparison and Sector Dynamics

Competitors like Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), which reports 3.9% revenue growth and a -1.21% Earnings ESP, highlight sector-wide caution. BJRI’s craft beer differentiation and EnLIGHTened Entrees® menu could offer an edge, but investors must assess whether these initiatives drive sustainable demand.

Conclusion

BJRI’s Q1 results will be a litmus test for its ability to balance growth and profitability. A beat on EPS and revenue paired with positive guidance on ROCE and cost controls could reinvigorate investor confidence. Conversely, a miss or weak outlook—amid a -8.70% Earnings ESP and Zacks #3 rank—may keep the stock under pressure. With 200+ locations and a focus on innovation, BJRI’s long-term success hinges on executing its strategy while adapting to macroeconomic and industry challenges. Investors should prioritize management’s clarity on these factors when evaluating the report.

In short, Q1 2025 earnings will reveal whether BJRI can sustain its outperformance streak or succumb to sector-wide headwinds. The stakes are high for a company valued at $850 million, with its future trajectory hanging on operational execution and strategic adaptability.