Bittensor (TAO) Price Spikes on Upbit Listing, Then Stalls

The listing of Bittensor (TAO) on Upbit on February 16, 2026, marked a key milestone for the token. South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange introduced three trading pairs: TAO/KRW, TAO/BTC, and TAO/USDT, significantly expanding TAO’s accessibility in one of the world’s most active retail crypto markets. Upbit implemented volatility controls, such as restrictions on aggressive buy orders and a two-hour limit-order-only period, to manage liquidity during the initial trading phase.

Despite the listing, TAO’s price action showed mixed signals. The token surged to $207 shortly after the listing but quickly retracted to $190. Analysts attributed this movement to a liquidity grab rather than strong sustained demand. The price stalled near $200, a level with prior stop-order accumulation, reinforcing the notion that the rally lacked follow-through.

The rally also occurred amid a broader decline in the AI crypto sector, which saw its market capitalization fall to $14.2 billion. This context suggests that the price movement was more about liquidity distribution than a sector-wide trend.

Did the Upbit Listing Signal a Breakout for TAO?

TAO’s price action following the Upbit listing has been characterized by volatility and uncertainty. The token spent weeks in a controlled downtrend after a previous rejection near $300, with sellers maintaining pressure through lower highs until buyers defended the $142–$145 support level according to analysis. The recent rally above $170 reversed the short-term bearish structure, flipping it to a bullish pattern. However, the consolidation phase near $190 suggests traders are taking profits rather than showing conviction.

Fibonacci levels indicate potential price targets for the upside. A breakout above $205 could lead to $240, and possibly $265–$270. Conversely, a breakdown below $170–$175 may lead to a test of the $150 support level according to technical analysis. Analysts have noted that the price lacks institutional flow to push decisively higher, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally.

Will TAO Maintain Its Momentum or Revert to Previous Trends?

TAO’s surge was partly driven by its small circulating supply (9.6 million of 21 million total tokens) relative to the token’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4.24 billion. This dynamic means that any new listings or increased demand can disproportionately impact the price.

The immediate focus is on whether TAO can sustain a move above $200 to validate the listing as a breakout rather than a one-off volatility event. A sustained move above $205 would be necessary to confirm real demand absorption.

Bittensor’s long-term success will depend on its ability to attract institutional adoption and maintain increased trading volume. The project is already expanding its subnets to 256 to enhance scalability and integration with onchain AI and stablecoins.

What Are the Risks for TAO After the Listing?

The primary risk for TAO is the lack of strong follow-through in the form of sustained trading volume and institutional demand. Futures open interest has declined, signaling traders are closing positions rather than adding new ones. This weak conviction limits the potential for a sustained breakout.

Additionally, the price is in a neutral-to-bearish zone with key support near $182–$185 and resistance near $200–$210 according to market analysis. A breakdown below $182 could trigger further downward pressure, potentially testing the $140 support level.

TAO’s performance following the Upbit listing has highlighted the challenges of distinguishing between genuine adoption and short-term liquidity-driven price spikes. The token’s ability to maintain its momentum will determine whether the listing was a meaningful milestone or a temporary event in its price trajectory.