Bittensor/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• TAOBTC posted a modest close near support after a 24-hour range of 0.00351–0.003745.
• Volume spiked during early morning highs, but turnover failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions mid-day, though a rebound lacked follow-through buying.

Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) opened at 0.003649 on November 9, 2025, and traded between a high of 0.003745 and a low of 0.00351 before closing at 0.003524 on November 10. Total volume over 24 hours reached 972.02 BTC, with notional turnover amounting to ~$2,583,600, factoring in Bitcoin’s price.

Structure and formations suggest a bearish consolidation pattern. The price found temporary support at 0.00351 but struggled to hold above the 0.003561 psychological level. A morning rally into 0.003715 failed to generate a bullish engulfing pattern, as a bearish pinocchio followed in late afternoon trading. The 0.003645–0.003704 range appears to be a key resistance cluster for further analysis.

Short-term momentum indicators confirm a bearish bias. The 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA in early morning, signaling a bearish crossover. MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish divergence between price and the histogram, especially in the late afternoon sell-off. RSI hovered near oversold levels (28–33) during the mid-day low but failed to spark a recovery. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in late morning, with price breaking below the lower band, indicating heightened volatility.

Volume spiked during the morning rally, reaching a peak of 183.28 BTC at 00:45 ET, but subsequent bearish moves saw lower volumes, pointing to possible exhaustion in the buying side. Turnover, however, remained relatively stable during the afternoon decline, which could imply that bearish pressure was supported by institutional or algorithmic selling. Divergence between volume and price movement suggests the rally may have lacked conviction.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key swing high at 0.003715 and swing low at 0.00351 identified potential support levels at 0.00361 (61.8% retracement) and resistance at 0.00366 (38.2%). Price failed to hold the 0.00361 level in the afternoon, indicating the need for a retest or confirmation of this support before any short-term recovery can be expected.

The backtest hypothesis explored a basic MACD crossover strategy on this pair from January 1, 2022, to November 10, 2025, using close prices. The results were severely negative, with a peak drawdown of –98% and an annualized return of –97%. This highlights the inadequacy of a basic MACD strategy on this illiquid, micro-cap pair in a predominantly downward trending environment. Golden-cross entries failed to trigger sustained bullish moves, and dead-cross exits often occurred after major declines. Without additional trend filters, volatility controls (e.g., ATR), or stop-loss rules, this strategy is unviable. Traders may benefit from integrating multi-timeframe analysis or incorporating broader trend indicators, such as a 200-day moving average, to avoid entering during bearish phases.