Bittensor/Bitcoin Market Overview (2025-10-03)

• Price rose from 0.002642 to 0.002691 before consolidating near key resistance.
• Volume surged during late-night buying, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, suggesting near-term pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-day, highlighting increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.00266–0.00268, signaling possible reversal.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) opened at 0.002642, reached a high of 0.002738, and closed at 0.002684 after hitting a low of 0.002642. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume was 198.65 BTC equivalent, with a notional turnover of ~$535,330 USD equivalent (based on Bitcoin price). The price action featured a bullish breakout and consolidation pattern amid increasing volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a clear bullish engulfing pattern around 0.00266 to 0.00268, confirming a potential short-term reversal. Price found support at 0.002661 and tested resistance at 0.002688 multiple times. A large bullish candle at 18:30 ET (0.002689–0.002695) suggested strong buying pressure, while a doji at 0.002683–0.002683 indicated indecision. These patterns suggest price is likely to test the 0.00271–0.00273 level next.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

Applying 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart revealed that price has moved above both, confirming a short-term uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period EMAs crossed recently, indicating a possible long-term trend reversal. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.002642 to 0.002738 swing identified key levels at 0.002713 (38.2%) and 0.002702 (23.6%), which are currently being tested as support/resistance.

MACD, RSI, and Volatility

The MACD (12, 26, 9) turned positive with a bullish crossover around 16:00 ET, reinforcing the uptrend. RSI reached overbought territory (~72) by early morning, indicating a possible near-term correction. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout, with price closing near the upper band at 0.002691, suggesting elevated volatility. This volatility expansion often precedes a consolidation phase or a pullback.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night session (00:00–05:00 ET), particularly around the 0.00269–0.00273 range, where buying pressure was most evident. Notional turnover also surged, aligning with price action and confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between price and volume did not appear, supporting the idea that the move is still intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the engulfing pattern's low. A take-profit target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the recent formation of a bullish engulfing pattern around 0.00266–0.00268 and the close above the 20-period MA, this pattern could be an attractive entry for traders aiming to capitalize on the short-term bullish trend. The RSI overbought condition and Bollinger Band positioning suggest a pullback could occur, offering a potential shorting opportunity near the 0.002695–0.002693 level.