BMNR Plummets 4.8% Amid Ethereum Thesis Turmoil and $365M Share Sale – What’s Next?

Summary
• BitMine Immersion (BMNR) crashes 4.8% intraday to $49.41, erasing $4.5B in market cap
• $365M share sale and Tom Lee’s Ethereum thesis under fire spark investor panic
• Options chain shows 20 contracts trading, with 100% of puts in the money

BitMine Immersion’s stock is in freefall as a perfect storm of bearish catalysts collides with technical breakdowns. The $365M share offering announced last week has triggered a liquidity crunch, while Tom Lee’s controversial Ethereum price targets face growing scrutiny from institutional critics. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $3.92 and a dynamic PE of -1,846x, the market is pricing in existential risks to the company’s crypto treasury model.

Ethereum Thesis Criticism and Massive Share Sale Trigger BMNR Selloff
The 4.8% intraday plunge in BMNR is directly tied to three interlocking factors: (1) the $365M share sale announced by BitMine, which diluted existing shareholders and signaled capital flight from its Ethereum treasury; (2) the public dismantling of Tom Lee’s $12,000 ETH price target by Mechanism Capital’s Andrew Kang, who called the thesis 'financially illiterate'; and (3) the broader crypto market correction as Bitcoin dips below $112K. These events have created a self-fulfilling prophecy where investors are selling BMNR to hedge against potential losses in its $11.4B crypto holdings.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on BMNR’s Volatility with Put Options
• 30-day MA: $51.00 (below current price) • RSI: 64.86 (neutral) • MACD: 2.59 (bullish but weakening) • Bollinger Bands: Price at 49.63 (near middle band)

BMNR’s technicals show a bearish divergence despite the RSI remaining in neutral territory. The 30-day MA at $51.00 acts as immediate resistance, while the Bollinger Band midpoint at $49.63 suggests the stock is consolidating near its 200-day range. With 200%+ put volume in the $46-50 strike range, the options market is pricing in a 10-15% further decline. Two high-conviction plays emerge from the options chain:

• BMNR20251003P48
- Put Option, Strike: $48, Expiry: 2025-10-03
- IV: 107.73% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.4102 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0738 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0468 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $254,207 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.06% (high reward potential)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.49 (max profit if price drops to $46.94)
- This put offers asymmetric upside with 18% leverage and high liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on the $48 support level.

• BMNR20251003P49.5
- Put Option, Strike: $49.5, Expiry: 2025-10-03
- IV: 101.57% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.4849 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0482 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0509 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: $70,875 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 14.88% (balanced risk/reward)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $1.04 (max profit if price drops to $46.94)
- This put combines strong delta with low theta decay, making it ideal for a slow bleed in price as the $49.5 level acts as a psychological floor.

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should target the $48 support level with BMNR20251003P48, while conservative traders may short the $49.5 level using BMNR20251003P49.5. Both contracts offer high leverage and liquidity to navigate the volatile environment.

Backtest BitMine Immersion Stock Performance
Below is the completed event-study back-test for BMNR.A after each ≥ 5 % intraday plunge (2022-01-01 ~ 2025-09-25). Key points first, followed by the interactive report.• Sample size: 64 plunges detected (≥ 5 % peak-to-trough move during the day). • Short-term bounce: median 5-day event return ≈ 137 % (benchmark ≈ 134 %), but t-tests show the edge is not statistically significant. • Medium-term drift: by 30 trading days the cumulative event return ≈ 290 % vs benchmark ≈ 293 % (no significance). • Win-rate trend: rises from 42 % on day 1 to ~ 89 % by day 28, yet variability keeps p-values high. • Practical takeaway: the historical bounce is large but highly noisy; without other filters the ≥ 5 % plunge by itself hasn’t delivered a statistically robust edge.(We used close-price series for return calculations. Because the raw indicator reports drawdown as a positive % value, “-5 % plunge” was interpreted as drawdown_pct ≥ 5. All unspecified parameters were set to platform defaults.)You can drill into the detailed curves, distribution plots, and event table via the module below.Feel free to explore the interactive charts; let me know if you’d like to test alternative thresholds, add risk controls, or run the strategy as a tradable signal.

BMNR at Inflection Point: Watch $46.5 Support and Ethereum Thesis Developments
The selloff in BMNR is far from over as the market digests the $365M dilution and the collapse of Tom Lee’s Ethereum narrative. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and a dynamic PE of -1,846x, the bear case is firmly entrenched. However, the $46.5 level (lower Bollinger Band) offers a critical support zone where short-term buyers may emerge. Investors should also monitor the $8.66B Ethereum treasury’s performance against the $12,000 price target—failure to breach this level could trigger further selloff. Meanwhile, the sector leader MSTR (Strategy Inc.) is down 7.19%, signaling broader crypto treasury sector weakness. Act now: Short BMNR with the $48 put or target the $46.5 level for potential entry if the Ethereum thesis is vindicated.