BitMEX Co-Founder Predicts 55% Bitcoin Rally to $110,000 on Fed Policy Shift

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has shifted his stance on Bitcoin, predicting a significant rally to $110,000. This change in outlook comes as a result of the anticipated shift in US monetary policy, which Hayes believes could create favorable liquidity conditions for Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time highs.

Hayes, who previously anticipated further downside for Bitcoin until it reached $70,000, now sees the potential for a rally to $110,000 before a significant correction. He attributes this bullish sentiment to the Federal Reserve's expected move from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries. Hayes suggests that the Fed's actions could mirror those taken during prior market interventions, potentially driving Bitcoin's price higher.

Hayes downplayed concerns about inflation and rising tariffs, arguing that inflation remains largely transitory and that monetary policy, rather than trade tensions, will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. He clarified that while he views Bitcoin as more likely to rally to $110,000 in the short term, there is still potential for a pullback to $70,000 levels once the rally peaks.

Hayes' outlook aligns with other bullish market calls, including those from 10X Research, which recently suggested that Bitcoin may have already bottomed. The firm initially expected a deeper correction after Bitcoin broke below $95,000 but reassessed its stance due to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

Early signs of bottom formation were bolstered by a shift in President Donald Trump’s rhetoric around trade policy, which signaled a more flexible stance on reciprocal tariffs. This softening of tone was interpreted as a positive risk signal, easing concerns over potential trade tensions and their impact on markets.

The outlook became more favorable after the March 17 CPI release, which indicated easing inflationary pressures. In response, 10X Research adjusted its stance from cautious to moderately bullish, seeing the data as supportive of a more accommodating Federal Reserve. The FOMC meeting that followed confirmed expectations, with the Fed choosing to look beyond short-term inflation upticks and hinting at future policy easing.

These macro shifts, combined with stabilizing price action and improving technical indicators, led the firm to suggest that Bitcoin could be in the early stages of forming a durable bottom. While overall trading activity remains subdued, 10X maintains that the groundwork is being laid for a potential recovery in the weeks ahead.