BitMEX CEO Predicts Bitcoin Correction Before 2025 Peak

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has predicted a significant correction in Bitcoin's price before it reaches new heights by the end of 2025. In a recent blog post, Hayes argued that Bitcoin's historical volatility makes a 30% correction plausible within the current bull market.

Hayes believes that Bitcoin could correct to the zone between $70,000 and $75,000, which would give back all gains spurred by recent market optimism, including the "Trump Trade" following President Donald Trump's re-election in 2024. He stated, "A pullback of this magnitude would be ugly. I think we are more likely to go down to $70,000 to $75,000 Bitcoin and then rise to $250k by the end of the year than to continue higher with no material pullback."

Hayes also noted that a steep correction in Bitcoin would likely trigger an even larger selloff in altcoins, creating lucrative opportunities for those positioned to capitalize. Consequently, a large liquidation of Bitcoin positions could signal when it's time to find reasonable entry prices in other cryptocurrencies.

Hayes began the year optimistically but has since tempered his outlook. Drawing parallels to the market downturn of late 2021, he explained that subtle shifts in central bank balance sheets, credit expansion, and fiat liquidity conditions have left him uneasy. Although optimistic about continuing the bull cycle in 2025, Hayes sees a potential correction approaching. Much of his analysis focuses on the interplay between global monetary policy and financial markets.

He highlighted concerns about the US Federal Reserve, which, according to Hayes, faces a delicate balancing act as it navigates rising 10-year Treasury yields and political pressures. The record pace of debt issuance and the reluctance of usual buyers — foreign governments and commercial banks — are creating a "powder keg" for the Treasury market. Additionally, Hayes warned that rising yields could trigger a mini-financial crisis, forcing the Federal Reserve to reverse course with rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE). This potential liquidity injection would ignite a massive rally in risk assets, including Bitcoin, as investors seek refuge from fiat devaluation.

Hayes also examined monetary policy in China and Japan, noting a slowdown in money creation in both countries. While the