Bitfinex Whales Dump BTC Longs as $135K Bitcoin Price Target Reemerges

Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows in early 2026, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This marked a return of institutional demand after weeks of mixed flows. The ETF inflows helped push Bitcoin toward the $93,000 range.

The surge came amid geopolitical tensions, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. This event led to a drop in oil prices and a shift in macro risk sentiment. Bitcoin held its ground and even moved higher, suggesting its use as a geopolitical hedge is gaining traction.

However, mid-week outflows totaling $729 million reversed some of the momentum. ETFs saw a shift in sentiment, with daily net flows turning negative on January 6 and 7. This led to a pullback in Bitcoin prices, which fell back toward the $90,000 level.

Why Did This Happen?

ETF flows are a key indicator for Bitcoin’s institutional demand. BlackRock’s IBIT alone added $287 million in a single day, its largest inflow in nearly three months. This was followed by contributions from Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC.

The timing coincided with portfolio rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting cycles. Many investors reweighted their Bitcoin exposure at the start of 2026. This aligns with a pattern where BTC ETFs see increased demand following periods of underperformance.

How Did Markets Respond?

Bitcoin’s price behavior showed signs of both strength and fragility. While ETF flows supported a rebound, on-chain data suggested long-term holders were selling. The 30-day change in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization turned negative in late December.

The price also broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, but it remains below prior highs. A decisive push above the mid-$90,000s would be needed to confirm a sustained trend. For now, the market is in a consolidation phase, with support near $91,500 and resistance around $94,200.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely tracking whether Bitcoin can reclaim the short-term holders’ (STH) cost basis of $99,100. If it fails to do so, it could trigger panic selling and extend the bearish trend.

Market structure is also a focus. A breakdown below $91,500 could lead to further declines toward $84,000 or $80,000. A retest of the $94,200 level is possible if Bitcoin can hold the $91,500 support.

Predictions for 2026 vary widely. Some analysts maintain a bearish outlook, expecting Bitcoin to return to $75,000. Others remain optimistic, citing potential rate cuts and regulatory clarity as catalysts for a $225,000 price target.

Bitcoin’s price has historically bounced after down years. Historical patterns show an average rebound of close to 100% following negative annual closes. If this trend continues, 2026 could see a strong rally.

Traders remain cautious. Put skew has compressed, and there is rising interest in longer-dated upside calls. This suggests a shift in positioning toward bullish bets.

Bitcoin’s future will depend on how macroeconomic conditions and ETF demand evolve. If institutions continue to build exposure through ETFs and Bitcoin can maintain key price levels, the bullish case remains intact.

Until then, the market is in a holding pattern. ETFs continue to provide structural support, but on-chain fatigue and geopolitical risks could disrupt the trend.