Bitfarms Surges 10% Amid Regulatory Shifts and Options Frenzy – What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Bitfarms (BITF) surges 10.08% intraday to $2.785, breaking above $2.80
• Japan’s crypto reserve mandate sparks sector-wide volatility
• Options volume spikes 55% above average, with $3-strike calls dominating
• 52-week range of $0.673–$6.60 suggests aggressive short-term positioning

Bitfarms’ 10% intraday rally on December 22, 2025, has ignited speculation about regulatory tailwinds and strategic pivots. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 52-week low of $0.673 to $2.785—despite a -8.71x dynamic P/E—reflects a mix of regulatory optimism and speculative fervor. With Japan’s new crypto reserve requirements reshaping the landscape, traders are scrambling to position for a sector-wide recalibration.

Japan’s Reserve Mandate Sparks Sector-Wide Repricing
Bitfarms’ 10.08% intraday surge directly correlates with Japan’s regulatory overhaul requiring crypto exchanges to hold reserves against liabilities. This mandate, aimed at mitigating risks from hacks and financial instability, has created a dual-edged sword for blockchain firms. While compliance costs rise, the move signals institutional validation of crypto infrastructure. Bitfarms, as a major miner, benefits from heightened investor confidence in regulated digital asset ecosystems. The stock’s break above $2.80—its 30-day moving average of $2.876—suggests short-term buyers are capitalizing on the regulatory narrative.

Blockchain Sector Volatility Intensifies as MARA Trails Bitfarms' Surge
The blockchain sector remains fragmented, with Bitfarms outpacing peers like MARA Holdings (MARA), which rose 0.3889% on the same day. While MARA’s modest gain reflects cautious optimism, BITF’s 10% move underscores its role as a regulatory bellwether. The sector’s mixed performance highlights divergent investor sentiment: some bet on compliance-driven growth, while others remain wary of operational costs. Bitfarms’ strategic pivot to AI/HPC infrastructure, announced in November, further differentiates it from pure-play miners.

Options Playbook: Leverage Gamma and Theta in a Volatile Regime
• RSI: 24.83 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.235 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $2.17–$3.496 (wide range)
• 200-day MA: $1.879 (far below current price)

Bitfarms’ technical profile suggests a short-term rebound after hitting oversold territory. Key levels to watch include the $2.61 intraday low (support) and $3.00 (resistance). The stock’s 10% move has triggered a surge in options activity, with the BITF20260116C3 and BITF20260116P2.5 contracts standing out for their liquidity and risk-reward profiles.

Top Option 1: BITF20260116C3
• Type: Call
• Strike: $3.00
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 98.51% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 13.26% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.444 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0072 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.5395 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $59,686

This call option offers aggressive leverage for a 5% upside scenario. At $2.785, a 5% move to $2.925 would yield a payoff of $0.925 per share. The high gamma ensures the delta increases rapidly if the stock breaks above $3.00, amplifying gains. However, theta decay of -0.0072 means time is a critical factor.

Top Option 2: BITF20260116P2.5
• Type: Put
• Strike: $2.50
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 104.84% (very high)
• Leverage Ratio: 16.38% (high)
• Delta: -0.296 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.0036 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.443 (strong sensitivity)
• Turnover: $30,199

This put option provides downside protection if the stock retests the $2.61 low. A 5% downside to $2.647 would yield a payoff of $0.147 per share. The high IV and gamma make it ideal for a volatile environment, though theta decay is less aggressive than the call. Aggressive bulls may consider BITF20260116C3 into a break above $3.00, while cautious bears might use BITF20260116P2.5 for a pullback.

Backtest Bitfarms Stock Performance
The backtest of BITF's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.55%, the 10-Day win rate is 45.48%, and the 30-Day win rate is 49.88%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 9.96% over 30 days, suggesting that BITF can offer decent gains even after the initial surge.

Regulatory Tailwinds or Overbought Reversal? Key Levels to Watch
Bitfarms’ 10% rally hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $2.80 and $3.00. A break above $3.00 would validate the bullish case, while a retest of the $2.61 intraday low could trigger a short-term correction. The BITF20260116C3 call and BITF20260116P2.5 put offer asymmetric risk-reward for both scenarios. Sector leader MARA Holdings (MARA), up 0.3889%, remains a barometer for broader blockchain sentiment. Traders should monitor Japan’s regulatory implementation timeline and Bitfarms’ AI/HPC conversion progress. Action: Watch for $3.00 breakout or $2.61 support test—position accordingly.