Bitfarms (BITF) Surges 11% on AI Pivot and Capital Raise – What’s Fueling This Volatile Move?

Summary
• Bitfarms (BITF) gaps up 11.34% to $3.45, hitting an intraday high of $3.57 amid a strategic shift to AI infrastructure.
• The company announced plans to convert its Washington site to support NVIDIA GB300s with liquid cooling, targeting completion by December 2026.
• A $588 million convertible notes offering and $500 million upsized financing in October 2025 signal aggressive capital deployment.
• Analysts remain split, with HC Wainwright cutting its price target to $4 from $5.50 but maintaining a 'Buy' rating.

Bitfarms’ 11.34% intraday surge reflects a confluence of strategic repositioning and capital-raising momentum. The stock’s sharp move follows a $588 million convertible notes offering and a pivot to AI/HPC infrastructure, positioning the company to capitalize on the AI-driven data center boom. With a 52-week high of $6.60 still in reach, investors are weighing the risks of margin pressures against the potential for long-term AI monetization by mid-2027.

AI Infrastructure Pivot and Capital Raise Drive BITF’s 11% Surge
Bitfarms’ 11.34% intraday rally is directly tied to its strategic repositioning from Bitcoin mining to AI/HPC infrastructure. The company announced plans to convert its Washington site to support NVIDIA GB300s with advanced liquid cooling, targeting December 2026 completion. This shift aligns with the surging demand for AI computing power, as highlighted in the North America BPO market report, which forecasts a 7.23% CAGR through 2033. Additionally, the $588 million convertible notes offering in November 2025 and the $500 million upsized financing in October 2025 provided liquidity to accelerate HPC/AI development. While Q3 earnings missed revenue estimates ($69.25M vs. $84.66M), the capital raise and infrastructure pivot have reignited investor optimism about long-term monetization in the AI sector.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Gains Momentum as BITF Leads AI Infrastructure Charge
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector, led by Microsoft (MSFT) with a 1.18% intraday gain, is witnessing renewed interest in AI-driven infrastructure. Bitfarms’ pivot to HPC/AI aligns with broader sector trends, including hybrid outsourcing models and AI-powered data extraction, as outlined in 2025 BPO forecasts. While Microsoft’s growth stems from cloud and AI integration, Bitfarms’ focus on AI-specific hardware and energy-efficient cooling positions it as a niche player in the AI infrastructure boom. The sector’s 7.23% CAGR through 2033 underscores the strategic value of Bitfarms’ move, though its high leverage and negative net margin (48.26%) present risks compared to more diversified peers.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Driven Puts for BITF’s Volatile Move
• RSI: 37.23 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.305 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.2795 (bearish), Histogram: -0.025 (divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $4.42, Middle $3.22, Lower $2.02 (current price near middle band)
• 200D MA: $1.75 (far below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $2.54–$2.60, 200D $1.03–$1.15

Bitfarms’ technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias amid oversold RSI and a price rebound from the 200D MA. The stock’s 14.3% 6-month surge and 145.6% YTD gain indicate resilience, though the 7.8% weekly decline and 12.2% monthly drop highlight volatility. For options, focus on high-leverage calls and volatility-sensitive puts. The BITF20251205C3.5 call (strike $3.50, exp. 12/5) and BITF20251205P3.5 put (strike $3.50, exp. 12/5) stand out due to their 16.36% and 111.36% leverage ratios, respectively, and high implied volatility (117.24% and 111.36%).

• BITF20251205C3.5 (Call):
- Strike: $3.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-05
- IV: 117.24% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 16.36% (high)
- Delta: 0.4936 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0223 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.6690 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $102,711 (liquid)
- Price Change Ratio: 100.00% (volatility-driven)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.175 (max(0, 3.6236 - 3.50))
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term rally, though theta decay requires swift execution.

• BITF20251205P3.5 (Put):
- Strike: $3.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-05
- IV: 111.36% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 13.21% (high)
- Delta: -0.5104 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0041 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.7042 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $17,810 (liquid)
- Price Change Ratio: -45.83% (volatility-driven)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.0238 (max(0, 3.50 - 3.2789))
- Why: Acts as a hedge against a pullback, with high gamma to benefit from price swings.

Aggressive bulls should target BITF20251205C3.5 into a break above $3.50, while cautious investors may use BITF20251205P3.5 for downside protection. Watch for a $3.50 pivot point and the 200D MA ($1.75) as critical levels.

Backtest Bitfarms Stock Performance
Below is an interactive report summarising the requested back-test. Feel free to explore the module for the detailed statistics and transaction stream; a concise analytical takeaway follows immediately afterwards.Key observations (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-28, close-to-close returns):• Total return: ≈ +2.4 % • Annualised CAGR: ≈ 51 % • Maximum drawdown: ≈ -91 % • Sharpe ratio: 0.50 Interpretation1. Returns were positive but concentrated in very few trades (note equal max / avg / total return). The high CAGR is a statistical artefact of infrequent exposure rather than sustained compounding. 2. The extreme 91 % drawdown highlights the risk of holding post-spike positions in a highly volatile crypto-mining equity such as Bitfarms. 3. With no explicit stop-loss or take-profit, the strategy suffered large interim losses despite occasional gains.Suggested next steps• Introduce risk controls (e.g., 15 % stop-loss, 30 % take-profit) and re-evaluate. • Test alternative exit rules (e.g., five-day holding window or trailing stops). • Examine results on a basket of crypto-mining peers to mitigate single-name risk.Let me know if you’d like to iterate on any of these ideas or dive deeper into the trade logs and signal dates.

Act Now: BITF’s AI Bet Offers High-Risk, High-Reward – Position for Breakouts or Breakdowns
Bitfarms’ 11.34% surge reflects a high-stakes bet on AI infrastructure, but the stock’s 48.26% negative net margin and mixed Q3 earnings highlight risks. The $3.50 strike price and 12/5 expiration options offer leveraged exposure to near-term volatility, while the 200D MA ($1.75) and Bollinger Bands ($2.02–$4.42) frame key levels. With Microsoft (MSFT) up 1.18% and the BPO sector expanding at 7.23% CAGR, Bitfarms’ AI pivot aligns with macro trends. Aggressive investors should target BITF20251205C3.5 for a $3.50 breakout, while hedging with BITF20251205P3.5. Watch for a $3.50 pivot and the 200D MA as critical inflection points.