Bitcoin/Zloty Market Overview: Volatile Reversal with Potential Bullish Setup

Summary
• Price opened at $372,614 and closed at $375,211 over 24 hours.
• Intraday volatility saw a swing from $369,541 to $380,137, with volume concentrated near key levels.
• Rising volume and divergence in price action suggest mixed sentiment and potential reversal cues.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at $372,614 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded as high as $380,137 and as low as $369,541 before closing at $375,211 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 2.08 BTC, with turnover reaching ~$767,423. The session featured sharp intraday reversals and several instances of price-volume divergence, particularly near key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the 24-hour window displayed a series of bearish and bullish reversals. A key intraday support at $370,500 acted as a floor multiple times, notably at 19:30 and 22:30 ET. A short-lived bear trap occurred at $369,604 after a breakdown, followed by a strong counter-trend rally to $380,137. A potential bullish engulfing pattern formed at 06:00 ET, where price surged from $374,900 to $377,180, confirming a short-term reversal from a prior decline.

A bearish doji appeared at $373,352 between 02:30 and 04:30 ET, signaling indecision and setting the stage for the later reversal. The price then consolidated around the $375,000–$377,000 range, suggesting the formation of a new short-term base.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged between $374,000 and $376,000, indicating a potential area of consolidation. The daily MA 50 and MA 100 are closely aligned near $377,000, and the price closed above both, suggesting a reentry into a bullish bias after a prior bearish crossover. The 200-period MA remains at ~$373,000, acting as a key long-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive crossover at the end of the session, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The RSI, which had dipped below 30 into oversold territory during the $369,541 low, closed above 50 at ~53, signaling a reversal in momentum. The divergence between the RSI and price action near $370,000 and $373,000 suggests the bears were unable to sustain the downward move, favoring a short-term bullish setup.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 22:00–06:00 ET window, pushing the Bollinger Bands wider. The price briefly broke above the upper band at $380,137, followed by a pullback to the middle band. Currently, the price is positioned just above the 20-period moving average and within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a continuation of the recent bullish thrust.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated during the 22:00–06:00 ET window, with a significant increase during the $374,900–$377,180 rally. The largest single-candle volume occurred at 06:00 ET, where $377,180 was closed after a strong move from $374,900. A divergence was observed between volume and price movement in the $370,500–$373,203 range, where volume dropped despite continued price consolidation, indicating waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $369,541 to $380,137, the price has pulled back to the 61.8% level at ~$375,000, suggesting a potential area of interest for further consolidation. On a daily chart, the 50% retracement of the prior bear leg is also near $375,000, reinforcing this level as a key psychological support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on detecting Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns in BTCPLN, ideally confirmed by a close above a recent swing low. Once a valid pattern is identified, the strategy would enter a long position with a 1–2 day holding period. A support-level filter could enhance accuracy by ensuring the pattern occurs near a prior low, reducing false signals. The next step involves confirming the correct ticker symbol to execute the strategy and pull accurate historical data from a reliable source such as Binance or Yahoo Finance.