Bitcoin/Zloty Market Overview – BTCPLN

• Bitcoin/Zloty declined sharply on elevated volume, forming a bearish reversal pattern.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with price falling below key moving averages.
• Volatility expanded following a Bollinger contraction, but turnover failed to confirm the move.
• Fibonacci levels suggest a potential retest of 413,500–412,500 support in the short term.
• A rebound attempt appears unlikely without increased volume and a shift in momentum indicators.

24-Hour Summary

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 416,880 on 2025-09-14 12:00 ET, reached a high of 421,625, a low of 410,152, and closed at 414,773 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. The total 24-hour volume was 1.0477 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 444,036,600 PLN. The price action indicates a bearish reversal pattern amid declining sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern visible between 420,919 and 421,688 before a sharp decline into 414,025. A key support level appears to be forming around 413,500–412,500, where the price may find a temporary floor. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 414,850 could also act as a near-term pivot point.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price fell below its 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows a crossover of the 50- and 100-period moving averages, suggesting a potential trend change. RSI has been in oversold territory for much of the last four hours but remains below 30, indicating continued bearish pressure. MACD has also turned negative, with the histogram displaying a bearish divergence.

Volatility & Divergence

Volatility increased sharply after a period of contraction in the late afternoon of 2025-09-14, as price broke below the lower Bollinger Band. However, notional turnover did not increase in a corresponding manner, suggesting weak conviction in the move. The final 15-minute candle of the first half of the day recorded the highest volume, indicating a possible attempt at a short-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 421,625 to 410,152, the 38.2% level lies around 415,400, which was briefly tested in the early morning hours. The 61.8% level at 414,850 may now act as a key psychological level. A close below 413,500 would suggest a deeper correction into 412,500–410,152, reinforcing the bearish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a bearish breakout pattern based on the recent 15-minute bearish engulfing formation. A short position would be triggered when price closes below the 50-period moving average with volume above the 14-period EMA and RSI below 30. A stop-loss could be placed at the upper Bollinger Band (recent peak at 421,625), with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 414,850. The 38.2% level at 415,400 could also serve as a dynamic exit point for partial profit-taking.