Bitcoin/Zloty Market Overview

• Price surged during midday before retreating near close
• Volatility expanded with sharp intraday swings
• On-balance volume skewed toward key resistance clusters
• RSI signals overbought conditions during afternoon session
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with closing retest

Price and Volume Snapshot

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 447,904.00 PLN on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 453,999.00 PLN during the session. It closed at 448,259.00 PLN at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour trading range was 446,051.00 to 453,999.00 PLN. Total volume was approximately 4.94 BTC, and notional turnover reached 2,217,420 PLN.

Structure & Formations

The price of BTCPLN displayed a bearish reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart as it formed a shooting star near the intraday high of 453,999 PLN. This occurred during the 18:45 ET time frame, marking a key area of distribution. A gravity zone developed around 453,000–454,000 PLN, where buying pressure collapsed, and price corrected into the evening. Support levels appeared to form near 449,000 and 447,000 PLN, with the former showing strong absorption of selling pressure.

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the consolidation phase during the early afternoon, suggesting a potential reversal of the upward trend. This was followed by a dark cloud cover near 451,000 PLN, reinforcing the idea of bearish momentum taking hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bearish territory as price broke below both indicators during the midday sell-off. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance near 450,000 PLN, while the 20-period MA accelerated lower in the afternoon.

On a daily basis, assuming a standard 50/100/200-period framework, the price appears to be forming a broad base consolidation pattern, with the 200-day MA likely sitting near 440,000–445,000 PLN. The 50-day MA currently resides near 449,000 PLN, acting as a pivot point for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish crossover during the midday sell-off, confirming the distribution phase. Positive momentum dissipated by 19:00 ET, with the histogram showing a contraction in bullish energy.

The RSI reached overbought levels (70+) during the afternoon rally but failed to sustain the reading, retreating back into neutral territory by the close. This divergence suggests a weakening in buying pressure and could signal a continuation of the bearish bias in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday rally, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band at 453,999 PLN. By the afternoon, the bands began to contract, indicating a potential period of consolidation ahead. Price closed near the lower mid-band, suggesting that the short-term bias has shifted to bearish. The distribution of volume and price within the bands supports a possible retest of the 447,000–449,000 PLN range before further direction emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the midday rally to 0.204 BTC at 16:45 ET and again to 0.1828 BTC at 18:00 ET, with a closing-volume spike of 0.1998 BTC at 08:00 ET. Notional turnover increased alongside these volume spikes, indicating strong conviction in price moves. However, during the post-noon sell-off, volume was moderate, suggesting that the bearish move was less driven by large orders and more by retail or trailing stops.

A divergence emerged between volume and price: while price fell sharply during the late afternoon, volume did not follow through with a spike, hinting at possible capitulation or lack of conviction in the bearish move. This could lead to a bounce within the near-term range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the intraday high (453,999 PLN) and low (446,051 PLN), key levels include 38.2% at 449,928 PLN and 61.8% at 447,866 PLN. Price found temporary support near the 61.8% level, indicating that the 447,000–448,000 PLN range is a critical area for further action. A breakdown below this level may target the 446,051–445,000 PLN zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the observed bearish reversal patterns, a backtesting strategy could focus on shorting BTCPLN when a bearish engulfing candle forms near a key resistance level and is followed by a confirmed MACD bearish crossover. The strategy would enter a short position on the close of the engulfing candle and target a stop-loss above the high of the pattern, with take-profit set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8% or 38.2%).

Given today’s action, the midday bearish engulfing pattern at 451,000 PLN could have triggered a sell signal had this strategy been active. The following 15-minute time frames confirmed the MACD bearish crossover and price retested the 61.8% level before stabilizing.