Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) rose to 424,696 PLN before consolidating, with key resistance near 425,000 PLN.
• Price retreated from a bullish impulse phase, forming a bearish engulfing pattern at 425,291 PLN.
• Volatility increased during the 15-hour surge, peaking at 425,499 PLN, but volume was moderate.
• RSI signaled overbought levels at 75, while MACD showed a narrowing bullish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the advance, with price closing near the upper band, suggesting a potential reversal.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 415,412 PLN on 2025-09-17 at 16:00 ET and surged to a high of 425,499 PLN, before closing at 425,291 PLN by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10.88 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 4,593,622,984 PLN.

Structure & Formations

Price moved in a clear bullish impulse phase from 413,509 PLN to 425,499 PLN, followed by a bearish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart, signaling a potential pause in upward momentum. A key support level appears to be forming around 423,967 PLN, where the price found a short-term bottom after a sharp decline earlier in the day. Additionally, a doji formed near 425,291 PLN, suggesting indecision at the top of the current move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, tracking below price action. The 50-period MA sits around 423,000 PLN and remains below the 20-period MA, indicating short-term momentum. Over the daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-period MAs appear to be converging slightly, but price remains above both, suggesting intermediate-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned slightly bearish, with a narrowing histogram indicating waning bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70), peaking near 75, and began a pullback, signaling caution. The RSI divergence with price action could hint at a possible consolidation or pullback in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price surge, reflecting rising volatility. Price closed the session near the upper band, suggesting it may be overextended and due for a correction or consolidation phase. The lower band held around 413,000 PLN, indicating a strong support range for potential rebounds.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume increased notably during the upward move, peaking at 0.29772 BTC on the 15-minute chart during a key consolidation phase. Notional turnover, however, remained relatively stable, indicating moderate participation despite the sharp price movement. A divergence between volume and price rise is not yet evident, but caution is warranted as volatility wanes.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from 413,509 PLN to 425,499 PLN, key levels to watch include the 61.8% retracement at 419,870 PLN and the 38.2% at 421,351 PLN. These levels have historically acted as both support and resistance in BTCPLN. The price is currently consolidating above the 38.2% retracement, suggesting potential for a deeper pullback or a retest of the upper band.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band and exits short positions when RSI falls below 70. This approach would aim to capitalize on overextended volatility while using RSI to filter overbought conditions. Given the recent price structure, a trailing stop could be set near the 423,967 PLN level to manage risk. This strategy would align well with the current short-term momentum but should be tested over a longer period to account for varying market conditions.