Bitcoin/Yen Market Overview

Summary
• BTCJPY experienced a strong rally in the 24 hours, rising from 15.5M to 15.8M Yen.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a peak at 15.9M Yen and a pullback in the last 5 hours.
• Volume and turnover remained steady with no significant divergence from price.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥15,506,261 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at ¥15,727,920 at 12:00 ET today, after hitting a high of ¥15,957,048 and a low of ¥15,465,677. Total volume across the 24-hour 15-minute OHLCV data was 78.08 BTC, and notional turnover reached ¥12,260,665,759. The pair showed a strong bullish bias with a broad intraday high before retracing in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a strong bullish bias through the early part of the session, with several bullish candle formations. The rally from ¥15,690,000 to a peak near ¥15,957,048 reflected a strong breakout of prior resistance levels. A bearish retracement followed, forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern near the end of the session, suggesting a temporary loss of upward momentum. Key support levels appear at ¥15,720,000 and ¥15,680,000, while ¥15,850,000 and ¥15,950,000 mark critical resistance levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for much of the session, reinforcing the bullish bias. However, as the session progressed, price dipped slightly below the 50-period average, indicating potential short-term distribution. On a daily scale, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA, suggesting a possible convergence phase that could lead to a significant directional move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish divergence earlier in the session with a broad positive histogram, suggesting strong buying pressure. However, as price pulled back, the MACD line started to flatten, signaling a potential exhaustion phase. The RSI peaked near overbought territory around 70–80 but has since pulled back into balanced territory. This indicates that while buying pressure was strong, it may not be sustainable.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded outside the upper band in the middle of the session, showing a sharp expansion in volatility. As the session progressed, volatility began to contract, with price settling within the bands by the close. This narrowing could signal a period of consolidation ahead, with potential for another breakout if bullish pressure resumes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively stable throughout the session, with no significant spikes indicating aggressive accumulation or distribution. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, aligning closely with price action. There were no signs of volume divergence from price, suggesting the rally and pullback were broadly supported by market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high near ¥15,957,048 sits at approximately ¥15,810,000, which aligns with a key support zone observed in the 15-minute chart. The 61.8% level is near ¥15,685,000, which could act as a critical support if the pullback continues. These levels are currently being tested by price, with potential to either hold or break, determining the direction for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves identifying and acting on the "Bearish Engulfing" candlestick pattern, which is often used as a reversal signal in bearish trends. For BTCJPY, this requires either confirming the correct ticker symbol with the data provider or manually calculating the pattern from the OHLC data. The Bearish Engulfing pattern can then be used as an entry signal for short positions. If implemented, this strategy could be backtested against historical data to assess its effectiveness. However, due to the current lack of pre-calculated Bearish Engulfing signals for BTCJPY, additional data preparation is required before a full backtest can be executed.