Bitcoin/Yen Market Overview

• BTCJPY rose from 18,652,140 to 18,906,030 before retreating to 18,783,560, with strong volume in the early afternoon.
• Momentum shifted in late afternoon as RSI dropped from overbought to neutral, signaling possible short-term consolidation.
• Volatility remained elevated as Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, but prices now sit near the midline.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 18,906,030 peak, suggesting near-term resistance may be tested again.
• Total volume was 74.4 BTC, and turnover reached ¥1,384,563,137, with divergences noted between price and volume near the close.

Opening Narrative

On 2025-10-09, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 18,652,140 JPY, reached a high of 18,906,030, and closed at 18,783,560 after declining from the midday peak. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 74.4 BTC, with notional turnover of approximately ¥1,384,563,137. The price action suggests a volatile but mixed session with bullish morning momentum followed by bearish afternoon pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish rally during the early afternoon, breaking above the prior day’s high before a bearish reversal occurred with a large bearish engulfing candle at the 18,906,030 level. A significant support level appears to form around 18,680,000–18,700,000, where price found bids multiple times during the session. A potential resistance cluster sits between 18,900,000 and 18,920,000, which could see renewed tests if momentum returns.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over during the early afternoon rally, providing a bullish signal. However, as the session progressed, the 50-period line began to slope downward, hinting at a potential short-term correction. The MACD showed a bearish crossover as the rally faded, while RSI dipped from overbought levels (~75) to a more neutral range (~55). This suggests waning bullish momentum and potential consolidation ahead.

The daily chart shows the 50-period moving average at 18,725,000, above the 200-period at 18,630,000, maintaining a bullish bias on the longer timeframe.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning rally, reflecting heightened volatility. The 15-minute close of 18,783,560 JPY currently sits near the midline of the bands, suggesting potential for a pullback or sideways range. Fibonacci retracements from the key 18,652,140 to 18,906,030 swing show 61.8% at 18,803,359 and 38.2% at 18,779,752. Price closed just below the 38.2% level, which could serve as near-term resistance or support depending on market sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the rally, particularly around 18,906,030, with large notional turnover, but began to taper off as price declined. This volume divergence suggests weakening conviction in the rally, with bears stepping in to reassert control. Toward the close, volume again picked up as price tested support levels, indicating a potential short-term bottoming process.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 15-minute 50-period moving average and the RSI is below 50, signaling a potential reversal in momentum. Short positions are triggered when price closes below the 50-period MA and RSI exceeds 50, indicating exhaustion in the bullish move. Given today's data, the strategy would have entered short positions during the bearish engulfing pattern at 18,906,030 as RSI crossed above 75. The trade would have closed on the 15-minute 50-period MA being breached downward, aligning with the close at 18,783,560. A stop-loss could be placed just below 18,700,000, a key support level observed in the session.