Bitcoin/Yen Market Overview

• Bitcoin/Yen fell to a 24-hour low of ¥16,743,216 on heavy volume, signaling bearish momentum.
• A deep correction followed a key 15-minute doji and a failed short-term rally above ¥17,050,000.
• Volatility surged during the Asian session, but fading volume suggests waning conviction.
• RSI and MACD show overbought conditions, suggesting a likely short-term reversal is probable.
• Price action is testing the ¥16,800,000 psychological level, a potential turning point.

Price Action Summary

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥17,098,695 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11 and reached a high of ¥17,273,832 during the 24-hour period, only to plunge to a low of ¥16,743,216 before closing at ¥17,010,779 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. Total volume traded was 71.84 BTC, and total notional turnover amounted to ¥12.17 billion. The session was marked by a strong bearish trend that reversed late in the Asian session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a classic bearish breakdown, punctuated by a long lower wick and a doji near ¥16,950,000—suggesting indecision before the sharp decline. Key support levels are emerging around ¥16,800,000 and ¥16,743,216, while ¥17,050,000 and ¥17,200,000 mark critical resistance. An engulfing bearish pattern was evident during the Asian open, signaling a high probability of further downside.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum is bearish with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both in steep decline. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period lines are closely aligned around ¥17,000,000, but the 200-period line remains above, indicating a medium-term consolidation phase. The price is currently below all major short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The RSI is hovering near the overbought zone, indicating a potential reversal is due. MACD is negative but with narrowing divergence, suggesting a deceleration in the downward thrust. A cross above the signal line could signal a short-term bounce, but the overall momentum remains bearish. The combination suggests a cautious outlook with the potential for a retracement to ¥16,800,000–¥16,900,000.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the Asian session, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band at its lowest point. The bands have since expanded, reflecting growing uncertainty. Price currently resides near the middle band, suggesting a consolidation phase may be forming. A break below the lower band would signal a new bearish trend, while a retest of the upper band at ¥17,200,000 could trigger a retracement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the Asian session as the price dropped below ¥17,000,000, confirming the breakdown. Turnover reached its highest point around ¥16,900,000, then declined as the price approached ¥16,743,216, indicating waning bearish conviction. The divergence between volume and price during the final leg down suggests the decline may not be sustained.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the high at ¥17,273,832 to the low at ¥16,743,216 show that the 38.2% retracement is at ¥17,000,000 and the 61.8% at ¥16,890,000. These levels align closely with key psychological thresholds and appear to be functioning as support and resistance. A bounce from the 61.8% level could set up a potential countertrend move toward ¥17,050,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on using the 50-period and 200-period moving averages as a crossover system, with additional confirmation from RSI and MACD. A long entry is triggered when the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA, and RSI confirms it’s not overbought. A short entry is triggered when the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA and RSI confirms bearish momentum. Stop-loss is placed at the nearest Fibonacci support/resistance, and take-profit is set at the next key level. In today’s context, with the 50-period MA below the 200-period and RSI showing overbought conditions, the strategy would have suggested a short position from the Asian session breakdown, which would have captured the majority of the downward move.