Bitcoin/Yen Market Overview for 2025-11-13

Summary
• BTCJPY opened at ¥15,783,345 and closed at ¥160,351,620 by 12:00 ET.
• Price surged past ¥160 million amid heavy volume and positive momentum.
• RSI and MACD show strong bullish momentum with no overbought warning yet.
• Volatility expanded as price traded near the upper Bollinger Band.
• Notable bearish and bullish candlestick patterns appeared during intraday swings.

BTCJPY traded in a sharp upward trend on 24 hours of 15-minute data, surging from an opening at ¥15,783,345 to a high of ¥160,686,260 and closing at ¥160,351,620 by 12:00 ET. The total traded volume was 194.86 BTC and notional turnover reached ¥30,942,439,633. Price action suggested strong institutional participation, especially in the late-ET hours as the price broke ¥160 million.

Structure & Formations

Notable resistance levels emerged around ¥15,850,000 and ¥160,000,000, where bearish and bullish engulfing patterns appeared. A shooting star at ¥15,875,000 marked a short-term reversal, followed by a strong bullish continuation in the early morning hours. A potential consolidation phase could occur above ¥15,900,000, where Fibonacci 61.8% retracement levels align with key psychological round numbers.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum was confirmed by the price staying well above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 20-period line rising sharply. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA appears to be crossing above the 100- and 200-period lines, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram displayed a strong bullish divergence, aligning with a surge in positive volume. RSI climbed into the 60–70 range, indicating strong momentum without overbought signals yet. This suggests the move could extend further, barring any external macroeconomic shocks or regulatory news affecting sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically from ¥15,700,000 to ¥160,600,000, with price consistently testing the upper band. A contraction in the bands could signal a potential pullback, but for now, the trend shows no sign of fatigue.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the late-ET to early-morning ET hours, coinciding with the ¥160 million breakout. Notional turnover spiked to ¥1,598,406,000 in the hour ending at 06:15 ET, indicating substantial accumulation at that level. The price and volume action confirmed bullish continuation rather than divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed key support at ¥15,900,000 and ¥15,850,000. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level coincided with the ¥158,900,000 to ¥160,300,000 range, which appears to be holding as a critical consolidation area.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the technical signals observed, a rules-based backtest could be constructed. A strategy scanning for bearish and bullish engulfing patterns at swing highs or key Fibonacci levels could offer insights into potential entries and exits. By testing over a 2022–2025 timeframe using BTCJPY OHLC data and defined parameters (e.g., 4-hour candles, 10-period swing high, and Fibonacci triggers), we could generate a data-driven performance profile. Additional rules like stop-loss, take-profit, or maximum holding periods could refine the strategy further. Given the current momentum and alignment of Fibonacci levels and moving averages, the setup appears favorable for testing such a hypothesis.