Bitcoin/Yen Market Overview for 2025-09-25

• BTCJPY opened at 16,946,191 and closed at 16,743,632, down 1.19% with a 24-hour range of 16,894,915 to 16,980,100.
• Volatility expanded after 20:00 ET as price broke below key support at 16,900,000.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 28, but volume failed to confirm a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the sharp decline, hinting at a breakout.

At 12:00 ET–1, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 16,946,191 and traded as high as 16,980,100 before closing at 16,743,632 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned from a low of 16,894,915 to a high of 16,980,100. Total trading volume amounted to 71.69 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥12.15 billion.

Structure and formations revealed a bearish shift as price broke below the 16,900,000 psychological level after a failed recovery attempt in the early hours of 25 September. A long lower shadow in the 09:30–10:00 ET candle suggested hesitation among buyers. Later, a bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:45–04:00 ET as price fell from 16,756,469 to 16,679,936. Key support levels to watch include the 16,600,000 and 16,500,000 Fibonacci levels from the 16,980,100 swing high.

A 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover by 02:00 ET, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, BTCJPY remains below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, signaling a prolonged bearish trend. The 50-day MA currently resides near 16,850,000, acting as a dynamic resistance.

MACD crossed into negative territory at 01:45 ET, with a bearish divergence forming as price hit fresh lows without a corresponding drop in the indicator. RSI fell into oversold territory (28) by 11:30 ET, suggesting potential for a bounce or consolidation. However, the lack of volume during this oversold condition weakens the case for a reversal. Bollinger Bands contracted sharply around 19:00–20:00 ET before a decisive breakout to the downside, indicating a period of low volatility preceding a significant move.

Volume and turnover spiked during the 00:30–00:45 ET and 02:00–02:30 ET hours, aligning with key price drops. Notional turnover reached ¥1.05 billion during the 02:00–02:30 ET session, confirming the move lower. However, volume during the morning rebound was relatively light, pointing to weak conviction among bulls.

Fibonacci retracements from the 16,980,100 high to the 16,743,632 low placed the 38.2% and 61.8% levels at 16,865,000 and 16,811,000 respectively. Price failed to retest the 38.2% level during the morning recovery, which may signal the continuation of the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing patterns and the confirmation from EMA and MACD indicators, a potential short entry could be triggered at the close of a 15-minute candle breaking below the 16,743,632 support level, with a stop above the 16,800,000 level and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 16,811,000. This strategy hinges on price staying within the defined Fibonacci range and maintaining bearish momentum as signaled by RSI and MACD. If RSI rebounds above 35 with strong volume, a reversal may be imminent, warranting a reevaluation of the short position.