Bitcoin/Yen Market Overview – 2025-09-17

• Price action surged with a 15-minute bullish breakout above ¥17,150,000, driven by strong volume in the early morning ET.
• RSI approached overbought levels by late ET, suggesting potential short-term pullback ahead.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, with price reaching upper band multiple times, indicating heightened trading interest.
• Notable bullish engulfing and continuation patterns emerged post ¥17,100,000 support level.
• Turnover spiked in the 04:00–07:00 ET window, confirming the strength of the price rally.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,936,244 at 12:00 ET on September 16 and surged to a 24-hour high of ¥17,225,000 before closing at ¥16,995,938 at 12:00 ET on September 17. The pair traded between ¥16,936,244 and ¥17,225,000 over the period, with a 24-hour total trading volume of 15.44 BTC and total notional turnover of ¥2,650,605,711.

Structure & Formations

Price moved in a strong bullish trend for most of the session, forming a key resistance level at ¥17,150,000. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around ¥17,100,000 after a consolidation phase, followed by a continuation pattern in the ¥17,120,000–¥17,140,000 range. A doji appeared at ¥17,192,497, indicating indecision after a rapid advance. Notable support levels developed at ¥17,050,000 and ¥16,950,000, with price finding a floor at the latter during a late ET sell-off.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period moving average early in the session, forming a golden cross that confirmed the bullish momentum. The 50-period line was consistently below price for most of the day, reinforcing the upward trend. On the daily chart, price remained above the 50- and 100-period moving averages, with the 200-period line acting as a strong floor at ¥17,000,000.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed positive divergence for much of the session, peaking at ¥17,220,000 before the bearish crossover began. RSI climbed to 74–77 during the late ET sell-off, indicating overbought conditions and suggesting short-term corrective action. A bearish divergence appeared in the last two hours of the session as RSI dipped below the 65 level, foreshadowing a potential short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with the upper band reaching as high as ¥17,225,000 and the lower band settling around ¥16,930,000. Price spent much of the session near the upper band, confirming strong bullish momentum. A contraction in band width occurred briefly before the breakout, signaling a potential reversal to a more volatile phase.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 04:00–07:00 ET period, coinciding with the price surge to ¥17,220,000. This volume was confirmed by a surge in notional turnover, with over ¥500 million traded in the ¥17,100,000–¥17,220,000 range. A divergence appeared in the final 15-minute candle before 12:00 ET, with price rising while volume fell, hinting at reduced conviction in the upward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥16,936,244–¥17,225,000 move, the 38.2% level sits at ¥17,105,000 and the 61.8% level at ¥17,150,000. Price tested the 61.8% level twice before the final pullback, suggesting this area is a strong intermediate resistance. On the daily chart, a key Fibonacci level at ¥16,970,000 appears to be acting as a support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action aligns with a backtesting strategy that prioritizes bullish breakouts above key Fibonacci and moving average levels, particularly when confirmed by volume and RSI momentum. This approach would have entered long at ¥17,100,000 with a stop-loss near ¥16,950,000 and a target at ¥17,250,000. The breakout from the ¥17,100,000 level, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and strong volume, provides a high-probability entry point. The RSI divergence and pullback in the final hour may also signal a short-term entry for a countertrend trade with a stop above ¥17,050,000.