Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) Market Overview – 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-05)

• BTCJPY opened at ¥17,998,170 and traded to a high of ¥18,355,001 before closing at ¥18,124,606.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged post 21:30 ET as price surged over ¥18,300,000 with above-average volume.
• A key 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥18,000,000, confirming a short-term support level.
• Volatility expanded post 02:30 ET with a high-low range of ¥190,000 and RSI approaching overbought territory.
• Total volume traded 31.43 BTC with ¥5.63 billion in notional turnover, signaling elevated market activity.

Price Action and Structure

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥17,998,170 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥18,124,606 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The 24-hour high was ¥18,355,001 and the low ¥17,954,378. This marked a volatile session with a range of ¥400,623 and a closing gain of approximately ¥126,436 over the prior day’s open. Total traded volume amounted to 31.43 BTC, while notional turnover reached ¥5.63 billion, indicating elevated activity.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY closed above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, suggesting a continuation of short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, affirming a longer-term upward trend. The 20-EMA at ¥18,133,000 and 50-EMA at ¥18,097,000 currently offer dynamic support levels.

MACD and RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive mid-session, confirming bullish momentum after a brief consolidation phase. The RSI climbed into overbought territory above 70 near the daily high, suggesting potential short-term profit-taking. However, the RSI remains above 50, signaling ongoing strength in the rally.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply after 02:30 ET as BTCJPY surged toward ¥18,355,001. The price traded near the upper Bollinger Band during this period, a common precursor to either a reversal or continuation depending on volume. The bands were widest at 02:45 ET and narrowed slightly by 12:00 ET, indicating a potential pause in volatility.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings from ¥17,954,378 to ¥18,355,001 show strong support at the 38.2% retracement level of ¥18,179,000. The 61.8% level at ¥18,258,000 was briefly tested but held, suggesting a key psychological barrier for bulls. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent low is also near ¥18,150,000, reinforcing the importance of this zone.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged above 1.0 BTC on multiple occasions, with the most notable spike occurring at 02:45 ET when the pair traded at ¥18,355,001. This was accompanied by a 13.60 BTC volume candle, one of the largest in the 24-hour window. Notional turnover peaked at ¥2.60 billion during this session, indicating strong institutional or retail participation. Price and turnover aligned well during this rally, suggesting a genuine bullish move rather than a wash-trade or spoofing attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when BTCJPY closes above the 20-EMA and the RSI exceeds 50 on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just below the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Exit the position when the price retests the 20-EMA on a close below it or when RSI drops below 50. This approach aims to capture short-term bullish momentum during confirmed trend phases.