Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles: Continuity or Crossover into The Forever Bid?

Institutional interest in Bitcoin has evolved from speculative trading to strategic portfolio diversification. By Q3-Q4 2025, major institutions such as Harvard University and JPMorgan had significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings. Harvard's investment in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) surged by 257%, reaching $442.8 million, while JPMorgan added 64% to its IBIT stake, totaling $343 million. These moves reflect a broader shift as institutions view Bitcoin not merely as a speculative asset but as a hedge against macroeconomic risks, including inflation and currency devaluation.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF sector further underscores this trend, with 60.8 billion in inflows since 2024, of which BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for 35%. Corporate buyers like MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor's company have also intensified their accumulation, with the latter purchasing 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million in a single week. Such activity suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a corporate treasury asset, akin to gold or fiat reserves.

Regulatory Clarity: A Catalyst for Institutional Confidence

Regulatory developments in 2025 have played a pivotal role in legitimizing Bitcoin as an institutional asset. The passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025 provided a clearer legal framework for stablecoins, addressing concerns over systemic risk and fostering trust in digital assets. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the global M2 money supply reaching $96 trillion have created macroeconomic tailwinds, supporting Bitcoin's valuation and attracting institutional capital.

Despite state-level regulatory uncertainties affecting Q4 performance, the overall trajectory remains positive. Institutional adoption of DCA strategies to mitigate volatility, as evidenced by the October 10, 2025 price drop, which triggered institutional buying and stabilized the market. This behavior aligns with traditional asset management practices, further blurring the line between Bitcoin and established financial instruments.

Structural Demand: Beyond the Four-Year Cycle

While Bitcoin's halving events historically signaled price inflection points, structural demand in 2025 appears to be driven by factors independent of the four-year cycle. Infrastructure developments, such as Galaxy Digital's expansion into AI data centers and HashStaking's AI-Powered Regional Staking Opportunity Index, highlight a shift toward institutional-grade digital asset infrastructure. These innovations cater to sophisticated investors seeking transparency and efficiency, moving the market beyond speculative cycles.

Moreover, the rise of corporate treasury strategies and ETF-driven inflows indicates a demand model less reliant on cyclical supply shocks. For instance, the projected price of $200,000 by year-end 2025 is not solely tied to the next halving but reflects confidence in Bitcoin's role as a macroeconomic hedge and a store of value. This suggests that structural demand-driven by institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic dynamics-is becoming a dominant force.

The Forever Bid: A New Paradigm?

The question of continuity versus crossover hinges on whether Bitcoin's demand is transitioning from cyclical to secular. While the four-year cycle remains a useful framework for understanding supply-side dynamics, the surge in institutional adoption and regulatory progress points to a broader, more enduring narrative. Institutions are no longer merely reacting to halving events; they are embedding Bitcoin into their long-term strategies, treating it as a permanent asset class.

However, challenges persist. State-level regulatory fragmentation and short-term volatility could test this paradigm. Yet, the growing alignment between institutional practices and Bitcoin's utility-as a hedge, a reserve asset, and a technological innovation-suggests that the "forever bid" is not a distant possibility but an emerging reality.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's four-year cycle may still cast a shadow over its price action, but the forces of institutional adoption and structural demand are reshaping its trajectory. As regulatory clarity and macroeconomic tailwinds converge with corporate and institutional strategies, Bitcoin is transitioning from a cyclical asset to a secular one. The "forever bid" is not a rejection of history but an evolution of it-a reflection of Bitcoin's maturation in a world increasingly reliant on digital value.