Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Losing Relevance, Says Analyst

For years, crypto investors have relied on a four-year cycle, centered around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a guiding framework. The theory suggests that every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is halved, leading to a bullish surge, followed by a peak, a crash, and a gradual recovery. This cycle was seen as a predictable pattern that investors could count on.

However, onchain analyst James Check proposes that this model may be losing its relevance. In an interview, Check argues that the structured frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as applicable in the current macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment. He suggests that Bitcoin is now more influenced by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates.

Check paints a more nuanced picture of the current market, suggesting that the traditional labels of “bull” or “bear” are no longer sufficient. He believes that the lines between these market conditions are becoming increasingly blurred. “The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also highlights the significance of the $70K–$75K range as a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market. He emphasizes the importance of thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions for an investor’s long-term success. This approach allows investors to be more adaptable and prepared for various market conditions, rather than relying on a fixed cycle.