Has Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Ended? A Structural Shift in Crypto Investment Dynamics

Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle-a narrative rooted in halving events, supply scarcity, and price surges-has long captivated investors and analysts. However, the 2024 halving and its aftermath have exposed a divergence from this pattern, raising a critical question: Is the cycle dead, or has it evolved into a new paradigm shaped by institutional forces and macroeconomic realities?

The 2024 Halving: A Muted Response

The 2024 halving, which reduced Bitcoin's block reward to 3.125 BTC, initially triggered a 31% price increase by April 2025, far below the 300% and 567% gains seen in prior cycles. By May 2025, Bitcoin had stagnated in a $80,000–$90,000 range, marking the weakest post-halving performance on record. This underperformance defies traditional expectations, suggesting that Bitcoin's price dynamics are no longer solely governed by its supply schedule.

Several factors explain this divergence. First, the issuance reduction from 1.7% to 0.85% post-halving had a diminished supply shock effect, as 94% of Bitcoin's total supply had already been mined. Second, macroeconomic headwinds, including trade tensions and policy uncertainty, dampened speculative fervor. Most critically, the January 2024 launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs injected institutional capital into the market, reducing volatility and altering retail-driven dynamics. These ETFs, while boosting Bitcoin's market dominance to 72.4% by May 2025, also created a new dependency on institutional sentiment.

Institutional Adoption: A Double-Edged Sword

The rise of institutional participation has fundamentally reshaped Bitcoin's investment landscape. By November 2025, 86% of institutional investors had either allocated to or planned to allocate to digital assets, driven by regulatory clarity in the U.S. and the EU's MiCA framework. Yet this institutionalization has introduced new risks.

When the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled tighter monetary policy in late 2025, Bitcoin's price plummeted 30% from a $126,000 peak in October to $85,000 by early December. This selloff was exacerbated by ETF outflows: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone faced $523 million in redemptions on November 19, with $4 billion leaving spot ETFs across the month. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 surged to 46%, underscoring its alignment with high-risk, growth-oriented assets.

This institutional-driven volatility highlights a structural shift: Bitcoin's price is now more sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and short-term capital flows than to its intrinsic supply mechanics. As one analyst noted, "ETFs have turned Bitcoin into a liquidity amplifier, capable of rapid ascents and equally swift collapses."

Regulatory and Structural Resilience

Despite the November 2025 drawdown, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain robust. The network's hash rate hit all-time highs in 2025, reflecting sustained miner investment and confidence. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market capitalization-$1.65 trillion as of November 21-retained its dominance at 65% of the crypto market.

Regulatory progress has further solidified Bitcoin's legitimacy. The U.S. approval of spot ETFs and the EU's MiCA framework have normalized digital assets as portfolio components, even as private litigation risks emerge under a slowing federal enforcement environment. These developments suggest that Bitcoin's institutional adoption is irreversible, even if its price trajectory has become more erratic.

The Cycle Reimagined

The four-year cycle theory, once a reliable framework for predicting Bitcoin's price action, now appears outdated in a market dominated by institutional flows and macroeconomic forces. Yet this does not mean the cycle is dead-it has simply evolved.

Historical averages still offer predictive value: Some analysts project Bitcoin could reach $243,000 by November 2025, assuming a continuation of the four-year trend. However, such projections must account for new variables, including ETF liquidity, regulatory shifts, and Bitcoin's role as a hedge against traditional market risks.

For investors, the lesson is clear: Bitcoin's price is no longer a function of supply alone but of a complex interplay between institutional demand, macroeconomic policy, and regulatory frameworks. The four-year cycle may persist, but its expression will be shaped by these structural forces.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's four-year cycle has not ended-it has been redefined. The 2024 halving and subsequent market dynamics reveal a maturing asset class where institutional participation and regulatory clarity outweigh traditional supply-driven narratives. While volatility remains, the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin is increasingly tied to its integration into mainstream finance. Investors must now navigate a landscape where cycles are not dictated by halvings alone but by the evolving interplay of capital, regulation, and macroeconomic currents.