Has Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Ended or Evolved?

Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, shaped by halving events, has long served as a cornerstone for market analysis. However, the 2024 halving-marking the third such event in Bitcoin's history-has sparked a critical debate: has this cycle ended, or has it evolved to reflect new structural dynamics in the cryptocurrency market? Drawing on post-halving price data, institutional adoption trends, and macroeconomic correlations, this analysis examines whether Bitcoin's traditional cyclical patterns remain relevant in a rapidly maturing market.

Post-2024 Halving Price Dynamics and Supply Constraints

The 2024 halving reduced miner block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively halving daily miner output to ~450 BTC. As of November 2025, Bitcoin's supply has surpassed 95% of the 21 million cap, with 19.95 million BTC mined. Despite these supply-side fundamentals, Bitcoin's price has faced bearish pressure, dropping to $90,200 amid institutional outflows and thin weekend liquidity. On-chain metrics, including a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 39.49 and a deep negative Bull-Bear Power reading, suggest ongoing capitulation-phase selling according to on-chain data. The 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $102,810 has transitioned into resistance, and Bitcoin must retake the $98,500 and $102,000 levels to reverse the short-term bearish trend as market analysis indicates.

Divergence from Historical Four-Year Patterns

Historically, Bitcoin's four-year cycle has followed a predictable pattern: pre-halving rallies, post-halving bull runs, bear markets, and accumulation phases. However, the 2024 halving has diverged from this template. As of October 2025, 18 months post-halving, Bitcoin has not experienced a market crash. Instead, it has seen a steady, controlled price increase, with the monthly RSI remaining in the 60s–70s range-far below the 90+ levels observed during prior peak cycles according to TradingView analysis. This deviation signals a shift away from retail-driven volatility toward a more institutionalized market structure.

A key driver of this shift is the growing influence of institutional investors. Unlike retail traders, who historically fueled speculative rallies and panic-driven corrections, institutions treat Bitcoin as a long-term asset or macroeconomic hedge. For instance, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 had amassed over $10 billion in assets by October 2025. This institutional demand has reinforced Bitcoin's price stability, with the cryptocurrency breaking its previous all-time high of ~$69,000 in early 2024-before the halving event.

Macroeconomic Correlations and Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin's price dynamics are increasingly aligned with global macroeconomic conditions. The cryptocurrency declined in 2022 alongside equities as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates but rallied in 2023–2024 amid rate-cut expectations. This alignment contrasts with earlier cycles, where halving events were the dominant price driver. Institutions now view Bitcoin through a macroeconomic lens, treating it as a hedge against inflation, dollar depreciation, and systemic risk.

Structural shifts in infrastructure further support this evolution. Partnerships like Algorand's collaboration with Noah to deliver institutional-grade, regulated payments on-chain highlight the maturation of blockchain ecosystems. Such developments enable seamless cross-border transactions and institutional-grade financial products, accelerating adoption beyond speculative retail markets.

On-Chain Data and Miner Behavior

On-chain analysis reveals evolving miner behavior post-2024 halving. Initially, miners faced liquidity pressures as reduced rewards forced them to liquidate BTC to cover operational costs. This selling pressure contributed to market volatility, particularly in over-the-counter (OTC) transactions according to CryptoQuant data. However, data from platforms like CryptoQuant indicates a significant decline in miner sales since early June 2024 according to on-chain metrics. This suggests that the market is absorbing residual selling pressure, with some analysts drawing parallels to the post-FTX capitulation phase in 2022, which preceded a recovery as data suggests. While Bitcoin's price remains mixed, weakening miner selling pressure offers cautious optimism for a potential rally.

Conclusion: Evolution, Not Termination

Bitcoin's four-year cycle has not ended but has evolved to reflect a more mature, institutionalized market. The 2024 halving's smaller impact on supply growth and the market's prior pricing of its effects have diminished the event's traditional influence according to market analysis. Instead, investors must now prioritize macroeconomic indicators, on-chain metrics, and institutional adoption trends. For traders, this means shifting from cycle-based strategies to flexible, data-driven approaches. While Bitcoin's price remains subject to short-term volatility, the structural shifts observed post-2024 halving suggest a long-term trajectory shaped by institutional demand and macroeconomic integration.