Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Defense Intensifies as Analysts Debate Timing Amid ETF Inflows and Macroeconomic Shifts

Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle has drawn renewed scrutiny as onchain analyst Willy Woo argues that the pattern remains intact despite recent volatility according to analysis. While some experts claim the cycle has stretched into a five-year timeline, Woo insists the traditional rhythm still holds until at least 2026 as predicted. He compares criticism of the cycle to misinterpreting a heartbeat based on minor fluctuations, emphasizing that structural forces like halvings and liquidity cycles remain intact according to Woo.

The debate comes as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have kicked off 2026 with over $1.2 billion in inflows, signaling growing institutional interest as reported. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s FBTC lead the charge, reinforcing confidence in Bitcoin as an institutional asset class according to data. However, inflows have fluctuated, with outflows recorded from some ETFs midweek, indicating market fluidity as observed.

Analysts like Raoul Pal argue the bull market has simply been delayed by macroeconomic factors. He attributes this to higher-than-expected global liquidity and delayed rate cuts, pushing the peak further into 2026 according to analysis. Others, including Tom Lee, suggest Bitcoin could break from its four-year cycle if it reaches $200,000–$250,000, driven by tailwinds from institutional adoption and macroeconomic trends as noted.

Why Did This Happen?

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is rooted in the predictable supply shocks caused by block reward halvings. Every four years, new Bitcoin entering circulation drops by 50%, reducing miner selling pressure and historically driving upward price action according to insights. However, recent market conditions suggest the cycle is evolving. In 2025, Bitcoin declined despite rising global liquidity, breaking from historical patterns as documented.

Willy Woo attributes the deviation to external factors rather than a breakdown of the cycle itself. He highlights that global liquidity still follows a four-year rhythm, aligning with Bitcoin’s risk-on/risk-off behavior according to analysis. Tom Lee, meanwhile, points to leverage resets and institutional adoption as forces that could extend or even break the cycle as suggested.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin ETF inflows in early 2026 have pushed the total net assets under management to over $116 billion according to reports. This surge reflects institutional demand and growing legitimacy for crypto as a mainstream asset class as noted. Morgan Stanley’s pending Bitcoin ETF filing adds to the bullish narrative, potentially expanding access for a broader investor base according to analysis.

Not all news has been positive. Bitcoin retreated to $90,000 in mid-January as ETF outflows hit $681 million in the first full week of the year according to data. The pullback is being viewed by some as short-term profit-taking rather than a shift in the long-term trend as analysts observe.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring how Bitcoin interacts with macroeconomic trends, particularly Federal Reserve policy and liquidity conditions according to reports. If rates ease and liquidity expands, analysts expect a stronger rally into the $130,000–$140,000 range as predicted. Nathan Jeffay notes that even a slowdown in current inflows could establish a six-figure price floor according to analysis.

Investor sentiment is also shaped by the debate over whether the traditional cycle is breaking down. While Woo argues structural factors still support it, others like Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believe the cycle is obsolete, with institutional flows now playing a dominant role according to analysis. This divergence highlights the growing complexity of the crypto market.

The coming months will likely determine whether the 2024 halving will have a more pronounced impact in 2026 or if macroeconomic forces will delay the expected bullish phase according to market insights. For now, the market remains in a transitional phase, with ETF flows and macroeconomic signals as key indicators of what lies ahead as observed.