Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Challenged by ETFs, Regulations, and Supply Shock

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has historically followed a four-year cycle driven by the halving mechanism that reduces mining rewards. These halvings have traditionally sparked significant price surges, followed by deep corrections ranging from 50% to 80%. The most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024, reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, with the next halving scheduled for April 2028. However, the relevance of these cycles is now being questioned due to increased institutional adoption and regulatory shifts.

The rise of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly altered the market landscape. Since multiple ETFs were approved in January 2024, large investors and institutions have entered the market in greater numbers. As of January 2025, the top five US-based Bitcoin ETFs hold over $126 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $47.7 billion. These ETFs have made Bitcoin more accessible, attracting a wider range of investors and reducing its price volatility. With more buyers in the market, price drops are becoming less extreme, challenging the idea that Bitcoin strictly follows its traditional four-year cycle.

Regulatory changes are another factor reshaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics. The US government has shifted its stance on digital assets, with a new “crypto task force” aiming to create clearer regulations. This pro-crypto approach, along with changes in SEC leadership, signals a more favorable environment for Bitcoin. Former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins will be stepping in as SEC Chair in June 2026, and his view on cryptocurrency could bring major changes. The previous SEC administration, which incurred over $400 million in legal fees for the crypto industry, is seen as crypto-friendly. With fewer regulatory hurdles, big investors and institutions may feel more confident stepping into the crypto space.

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a supply shock, with only 450 BTC available for sale daily, and demand outpacing supply. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin available for sale has now reached its lowest level since October 2020. Meanwhile, the accumulator concludes that consistently buying BTC without selling is increasing at record-breaking rates. With Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 in late 2024, and shown a major increase of 5.75x increase since the 2022 cycle lows. The analysts suggest that while halvings may still influence BTC’s price, they are no longer the dominant force. Instead, economic trends, institutional interest, and regulatory clarity could define Bitcoin’s future.

The crypto market is evolving, and Bitcoin halving may no longer be the main reason for its price cycles like it once was. With Bitcoin ETFs soaking up supply, major corporations adding BTC to their balance sheets, and clearer regulations taking shape, Bitcoin’s price movements are starting to depend more on the broader economy rather than just the four-year halving event. This shift could mean more stable price cycles or even unexpected volatility, as new factors come into play. One thing is certain—Bitcoin is evolving, and its market behavior is becoming more complex as it matures into a globally recognized asset.