Bitcoin and XRP Flow Divergence: ETF Outflows vs. XRP Inflows Amid Geopolitical Risk

The price weakness in Bitcoin is being driven by tangible institutional money flows. US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds notched a fourth straight week of net outflows, with $360 million withdrawn last week. This follows a broader trend, as ETF investors have now pulled over $4.1 billion in net assets from crypto asset ETFs year-to-date, signaling a clear shift in near-term sentiment.

This outflow pressure is directly impacting the asset's price action. Bitcoin has rejected attempts to hold above $70,000, with the token down approximately 28% in February. The price decline mirrors a more cautious macro backdrop, as Bitcoin continues to trade like a high-beta tech proxy amid concerns over geopolitical tensions and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The bottom line is that flows are overriding fundamentals in the short term. While long-term narratives about Bitcoin's scarcity and demand persist, the immediate price trajectory is being dictated by these sustained institutional withdrawals.

Price Action and Technical Flow

Bitcoin's recent slide is defined by sharp price moves and extreme volume. The token dropped as much as 3.2 per cent to US$66,604 on Tuesday, extending a four-week decline. This move was accompanied by a massive spike in trading activity, with volume peaking at over 114 million BTC on February 6, indicating high uncertainty and potential for further volatility.

The technical structure confirms the bearish momentum. Bitcoin has repeatedly rejected attempts to hold above $70,000, with the price down approximately 28% in February. This pattern of rejections, combined with the high-volume sell-off, points to a confirmed bearish Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Such a pattern typically signals a continuation of the prevailing downtrend.

The immediate price target for this breakdown is clear. The technical setup suggests a potential move toward the psychological $60,000 level. This projection aligns with the broader flow of money out of Bitcoin ETFs and the risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions, creating a multi-faceted headwind for the asset.

XRP's Contrarian Flow and Geopolitical Catalysts

The divergence in institutional flows is stark. While Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows, US-traded spot XRP ETF products pulled $51.3 million in net inflows across February 2-9. This marks a clear contrarian move, with Franklin and Bitwise each capturing roughly $20 million in inflows during that period. The inflows were driven by fee waivers and distribution advantages, creating a lower hurdle for allocators to trial exposure.

Price action tells a different story. XRP trades around $1.36–$1.40, roughly 63% below its multi-year high. The technical structure shows a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with the token recently rejecting the 200-week moving average near $1.40. This sets up a key test: a break below the recent $1.12 low could accelerate the decline toward the Gaussian mid-band near $0.70.

The bottom line is that flow momentum is the immediate catalyst. Sustained Bitcoin outflows would confirm a broad shift in institutional sentiment, potentially pressuring all risk assets. For XRP, the path hinges on whether these early ETF inflows can gain traction against the prevailing downtrend. Monitoring the trajectory of ETF flows is the clearest near-term signal.