Bitcoin's Wyckoff Accumulation Model Targets 125,000

Bitcoin is currently following the Wyckoff Accumulation model, with a significant price movement from $62,000 in what is known as the "Spring" phase. This phase is characterized by a sharp decline followed by a rapid recovery, which is seen as a shakeout of weak hands before the upward trend resumes. The next key level for Bitcoin is $106,400, which, if broken, could signal the start of a markup phase with a potential target of $125,000.

The Wyckoff Accumulation cycle is divided into five phases, labeled A through E. Bitcoin's recent price action suggests it is currently in Phase D, the Automatic Rally, following the Spring event on April 6. The breakout point of $106,400 aligns with past resistance levels, which have now flipped into support. Additionally, a Golden Cross structure formed between early May and June, confirming long-term bullish momentum. This crossover marked the beginning of an uptrend on June 6, aligning with the Wyckoff markup phase.

Resistance areas are noted near $111,965.80 and $124,555.70, which match prior highs and are situated along projected path lines drawn from the accumulation schematic. The chart suggests that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by July, assuming no unexpected deviations. The Wyckoff structure provides a pattern-driven framework for anticipating price behavior, focusing on supply, demand, and institutional accumulation. This model has been widely applied across financial markets due to its effectiveness in predicting price movements.

According to an analyst, Bitcoin's current structure aligns with Wyckoff's Accumulation Schematic #1. The visual alignment includes preliminary support, selling climax, automatic rally, and spring phase, which map cleanly to Bitcoin's movement from February through June. Phase A began with a drop into a low of $62,800.25, marking the selling climax and preliminary support range. Phase B involved volatility and consolidation throughout March and April with repeated tests near $78,000. Phase C involved the Spring on April 6, where the price dipped before sharply recovering, triggering a shift to Phase D, which is now underway. If this model continues, Phase E—the breakout and rally phase—is expected to target a move past $125,000.

Policy developments, such as the GENIUS Act or FOMC decisions, could serve as external triggers for Bitcoin's price movement. Macroeconomic narratives often act as catalysts during markup phases, and a scheduled event or news release may align with the technical breakout. The timing of the markup on June 6 and current narrative discussions may not be coincidental. If Bitcoin maintains momentum above $106,000, the $125,000 projection may become self-fulfilling due to technical and narrative convergence. With prior resistance zones already cleared, new buyers may accelerate upside continuation.