Bitcoin's Wild Ride: Volatility Surges Amid US Crypto Plans and Tariff Turmoil

Bitcoin volatility surges amid US crypto reserve plans and tariff jitters, according to data from TradingView and Glassnode. The conflicting bullish and bearish signals have sent crypto prices on a rollercoaster ride, with Bitcoin's average realized volatility nearing cycle highs and its average true range (ATR) reaching record levels.

Bitcoin's realized volatility, a measure of daily price variations, has recorded some of the highest volatility values of the cycle so far, exceeding 80% on one- and two-week timeframes. Meanwhile, the digital currency's ATR has reached cycle highs of more than 4,900, up from around 3,000 in late February.

As of March 5, Bitcoin is down nearly 30% from December highs of around $109,000, with altcoins Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) both down more than 50% off their highs.

On March 4, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, the United States' largest trading partners. The bearish news was a bait-and-switch for traders who turned optimistic after Trump tipped plans on March 2 to create a US crypto reserve holding tokens ranging from BTC and ETH to XRP (XRP) and Cardano (ADA). In response, Bitcoin sunk to around $82,000 after touching highs of around $93,000 on March 3, with altcoins such as ETH and SOL falling even further.

The sell-off signaled that macro factors could overpower bullish industry developments, including the US Securities and Exchange Commission's dismissal of several lawsuits against crypto firms in February. On March 4, cryptocurrency derivatives traders suffered more than $1 billion in liquidations as spot prices whipsawed.