Bitcoin 'Widespread Correction' Unlikely After US Strike on Venezuela: Analyst

Bitcoin Market Analysis: January 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized above $87,000 on Thursday, maintaining its position after a 1% drop the previous day. Market participants observed reduced institutional activity toward the end of 2025, while corporate demand continued to accumulate. Derivatives data indicated a decline in retail exposure, with BTC futures Open Interest dropping to $54.62 billion.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continued in December, with $1.09 billion recorded in withdrawals. This marked the fifth consecutive bearish month for these funds. Tether, a major stablecoin issuer, acquired 8,888 BTC in the last three months, indicating sustained corporate interest.

Bitcoin's price pattern displayed a symmetrical triangle formation, with resistance near $92,000 and support near $85,000. The RSI and MACD indicators suggested limited short-term momentum. A break below key support levels could signal further downward movement.

Why the Move Happened

The U.S. military strike on Venezuela triggered initial volatility in the Bitcoin market. On the morning of January 3, 2026, BTC briefly dipped below $90,000 amid reports of the operation. However, the price quickly recovered and remained near $89,976 by midday according to CoinDesk.

Venezuela has long been a focal point for geopolitical and financial instability. Sanctions and oil-related tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have contributed to a backdrop of uncertainty. The capture of President Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent legal actions against him intensified concerns in global markets.

How Markets Responded

Despite the geopolitical shock, the crypto market remained relatively stable. Bitcoin and major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and XRP held steady, showing no immediate flight to safety.

The broader financial markets reacted with caution. U.S. stocks and gold saw modest gains, while silver posted a 3% increase. Bitcoin mining firms such as Hut 8, CleanSpark, and TeraWulf saw sharp gains of over 10%, reflecting optimism in the sector.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market participants are closely monitoring liquidity conditions, given the thin trading environment in early January. The CRYPTOCAP index showed elevated volumes, reaching $200 billion as traders adjusted positions. Analysts expect continued volatility depending on how the Venezuela situation unfolds.

Bitcoin’s technical structure remains unresolved, with key pivot levels at $88,890 and $87,008. The upper microstructure defines resistance levels between $90,966 and $95,804, while the lower microstructure spans between $87,008 and $82,170.

Corporate demand for Bitcoin remains a watchpoint. Tether and MicroStrategy have continued to build holdings, but recent corporate moves, such as Prenetics halting further Bitcoin purchases, signal a shift in strategy.

Bitcoin’s ability to sustain above $87,000 could determine whether it remains in consolidation or moves into a new directional trend. Analysts are also observing the RSI and Bollinger Band indicators, which suggest potential for a breakout similar to early 2023.

The coming weeks will determine whether the Venezuela incident triggers broader market repricing or fades into the noise of a volatile year for crypto. Geopolitical events often act as catalysts rather than immediate price drivers, and traders are now positioned for a range of potential outcomes as reported by CryptoTimes.