Bitcoin Whales Realize $1.24 Billion Losses Amid June Rebalancing

In the final days of June, Bitcoin's on-chain behavior underwent a significant shift, with whales exhibiting signs of internal conflict between capitulation and profit-taking. According to CryptoQuant analyst, new whales realized over $641 million in profits while simultaneously realizing more than $1.24 billion in losses. This unusual overlap typically indicates extreme stress or rebalancing phases, where some players exit positions at a loss while others take profit before a potential reset.

In contrast, older whales remained relatively calm, with just $91 million in realized profits and minimal losses. This suggests that long-term holders are not yet shaken, and the most reactive behavior is coming from newer entrants or funds repositioning ahead of Q3.

Historically, spikes in realized losses, especially from short-term holders, have occurred near local bottoms. Panic selling and capitulation often precede accumulation phases by more experienced investors. What makes this recent behavior noteworthy is that the intense flow of profit-taking and losses did not continue into early July. Instead, on-chain flows have cooled, possibly indicating a momentary rebalancing or market exhaustion.

Late June marked the close of H1, a traditional rebalancing window for ETFs and large funds. This aligns with the idea that the unusual whale activity wasn’t just emotional; it may have been structural. Institutional managers could have used the downturn to clean up portfolios, lock in profits, or offset capital gains before Q3 begins.

Backing up this thesis is another signal from on-chain analyst, who highlighted a steep 17% drop in the 30-day change of active Bitcoin supply. This metric tracks how much of the total BTC supply moved in the last six months compared to a month ago and acts as a pulse for blockchain activity. To put it simply, fewer coins are moving. According to the analyst, this level of inactivity was last seen in September 2024, right before Bitcoin kicked off a major rally.

While low activity might seem bearish at first glance, it’s often a sign of supply exhaustion. If sellers are done dumping and buyers are waiting for confirmation, such lull periods can create tight liquidity conditions. That’s the kind of setup where any sharp demand return can trigger outsized price moves.

When whales start to log billion-dollar losses and stop selling, and the network goes quiet all at once, there’s usually a bigger narrative playing out. Combine that with half-year rebalancing and the 17% drop in active supply, and you have the makings of a macro turning point.

Still, it’s not without risks. If macroeconomic conditions worsen or ETF inflows remain weak in early July, the market could test lower support zones. But for now, on-chain signals are whispering rather than shouting, with subtle hints that a pivot might already be in motion.

While no single metric guarantees direction, this convergence of realized losses, whale activity, and shrinking active supply creates a narrative worth tracking. If new supply remains dormant and long-term holders stay quiet, they could set the stage for accumulation. For now, the on-chain signals are flashing amber, not red. Traders would be wise to stay nimble, monitor post-H1 fund flows, and wait for clearer confirmation. Momentum might still be lurking beneath the surface; if the tide turns, it’ll likely start with the quiet moves of the smart money.