Bitcoin Whales Accumulate 254.46% More as Price Nears Key Resistance

Bitcoin traders are advised to focus on key resistance levels and whale activity rather than the upcoming halving event. Short-term holder resistance is aligned with whale accumulation and breakeven levels near $106.2K. The 1-week to 4-week cohort of short-term holders has an average entry price of $106.2K, while those holding for 3 to 6 months have an average entry price near $97.5K. This creates a psychological battleground as Bitcoin trades near $105,606, with those nearing breakeven potentially rushing to sell, adding resistance near $106.2K. Conversely, buyers anticipating a dip might view the $97.5K level as a discount zone.

This dynamic could determine whether Bitcoin breaks out or reverses downward, depending on which cohort dominates near-term price action. Large holder inflows have spiked 254.46% in the past week, while outflows have fallen 53.86%, indicating that whales are accumulating and holding rather than exiting. This bullish divergence suggests growing conviction that current prices offer value, especially with Bitcoin consolidating under the $106K ceiling. This behavior may provide enough liquidity support to reinforce the $97.5K level and potentially flip $106.2K into a breakout zone, provided this whale activity sustains.

However, caution is advised as Bitcoin's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has surged 55.38%, reaching 49.47. This highlights a widening gap between price and network transaction volume, suggesting that the market cap is expanding faster than actual on-chain usage. Such a divergence typically implies overvaluation and hints at reduced organic activity. When paired with weakening momentum signals, NVT spikes often mark exhaustion at the top. The Stock-to-Flow ratio has dropped 25%, weakening Bitcoin's scarcity narrative. Traders are shifting focus toward real-time data like inflows, outflows, and cost basis levels, reflecting growing skepticism toward halving-driven valuation models.

Bitcoin remains trapped between an ascending trendline and the key resistance cluster near $106.2K, which includes the short-term holder cost basis and the Fibonacci retracement zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows signs of fading momentum, with a possible bearish crossover developing. These factors indicate indecision in the market. If bulls cannot reclaim control above $106K, the price risks falling toward $97.5K. Conversely, a strong breakout above $106.2K could clear the path toward $110K and beyond. Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $106,200 rests on whether whale inflows can outweigh breakeven sell pressure from recent buyers. If whales continue to accumulate and the NVT ratio stabilizes, a breakout is possible. If not, sellers may find an opening, and the $97,500 level will be tested once more.