Bitcoin's Whale-Driven Market Reset: Is This the Bottom?

The Bitcoin market in November 2025 is caught in a tug-of-war between institutional accumulation and retail capitulation. On-chain data from Santiment and Glassnode reveals a stark divergence in behavior between large holders-commonly referred to as "whales"-and smaller investors. While retail selling pressure has intensified, with Bitcoin ETF outflows and a shrinking base of small-holding wallets, whale activity has surged to multi-month highs. This dynamic raises a critical question: Is the current price correction a stabilizing cycle low, or does it signal a deeper bearish phase?

Whale Accumulation: A Structural Shift

Santiment data highlights a dramatic increase in whale transactions, with over 102,900 transactions exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 surpassing $1 million in the week of November 2025. This marks what analysts are calling the most active whale week of the year according to Whale Alert. Glassnode corroborates this trend, noting that the number of wallets holding 1,000+ BTC has reached a four-month high of 1,384, up 2.2% since October 27. Crucially, this accumulation is concentrated in the 1,000–10,000 BTC bracket, a range historically associated with institutional and long-term investors.

The shift from net selling to accumulation among large holders is particularly significant. Earlier in 2025, whales had been net sellers, but recent inflows suggest a reversal as Bitcoin dips below $90,000. Glassnode's Hot Capital Share metric, which tracks short-term, price-sensitive capital, has risen to 37.7%, indicating that whales are increasingly moving funds into cold storage-a defensive strategy often seen ahead of market bottoms.

Retail Selling Pressure and Market Exhaustion

While whales are accumulating, retail investors are exiting en masse. The number of wallets holding 1 BTC or less has dropped to a yearly low of 977,420, reflecting widespread panic selling. Santiment notes that small holders, particularly those with less than 0.1 BTC, have been offloading positions amid heightened fear. This divergence mirrors historical patterns where whales buy during downturns while retail traders flee, often marking inflection points in the market cycle.

Glassnode's analysis underscores the severity of retail exhaustion. Bitcoin's 14-day RSI hit 18.8, one of the lowest readings in recent history, while the Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear territory. Derivatives data also tells a bearish story: perpetual CVD (Capitalization Value) remains deeply negative, and open interest in futures has fallen by 5%, signaling position unwinds rather than new short exposure. Meanwhile, ETF outflows have worsened, with $1.9 billion in weekly net outflows, further pressuring liquidity.

Divergence in Sentiment: A Potential Bottom Signal

The contrast between whale accumulation and retail selling has historically been a precursor to market bottoms. Santiment's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has entered the "opportunity zone," suggesting Bitcoin is undervalued. Glassnode analysts highlight that the defense of the mid-$80,000 range and the moderation in ETF outflows point to early stabilizing forces. However, structural challenges persist: short-term holders are realizing daily losses of approximately $427 million, and liquidity remains thin.

Key support levels identified by Santiment include the Active Realized Price at $89,400 and the True Market Mean Price at $82,400. If Bitcoin holds these levels, it could trigger a technical rebound. Yet, the absence of speculative leverage in futures and the dominance of defensive positioning in options suggest the market is waiting for stronger inflows or macroeconomic catalysts to shift direction.

Is This the Bottom? A Cautious Outlook

While whale-driven accumulation is a bullish sign, the current environment remains fraught with risks. The market is in a liquidity squeeze, with Bitcoin trading in a narrow range between $97K and $111.9K, and resistance near $116K marked by a dense supply cluster. ETF outflows and weak institutional demand further underscore the cautious tone.

However, the divergence in on-chain behavior-whales buying while retail investors panic-historically aligns with cyclical bottoms. The question is whether the current inflows to large holders will outweigh the structural selling pressures. For now, the data suggests a stabilization phase rather than a definitive bottom. Investors should monitor the defense of key support levels and the evolution of ETF flows, as these could provide clearer signals in the coming weeks.