Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Surges 14% as Market Cycle Nears Peak

Bitcoin (BTC) may be nearing the final stage of its current market cycle, characterized by a dramatic rally followed by a sharp correction and eventual bear market. This phase is often the climax of the past four years, and major players are preparing accordingly. Since late 2024, Bitcoin whale accumulation has surged, with the number of addresses holding over 100 BTC jumping by almost 14%, reaching 18,200 — a level not seen since 2017. This indicates that the biggest market players are positioning for what could be this cycle’s final run-up.

However, riding this rally is challenging, and knowing when to exit is notoriously difficult. The lure of higher price highs fuels FOMO, driving investors to buy the top, only to face painful drawdowns or even liquidations. Several technical and onchain indicators, such as the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, Pi Cycle Top, and trading volume trends, have historically been reliable in signaling when Bitcoin is nearing its peak.

The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility. A high Z-score suggests Bitcoin is significantly overvalued relative to its historical cost basis. When this indicator is at a historical high, the ensuing downward trend in Bitcoin prices is likely. The Pi Cycle Top tracks BTC price dynamics using moving averages. When the 111-day moving average (111-SMA) crosses above twice the 350-day average (350-SMAx2), it signals overheating. In other words, when the short-term trend catches up to the long-term trajectory, a market top is in. Historically, all previous Bitcoin bull runs started with a notable surge in MVRV Z-score, and ended with 111-SMA crossing the longer-term trend.

Additionally, lower trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often signaling weakening momentum and potential for a reversal. On-balance volume (OBV), which registers cumulative volume flow, is a valuable metric for tracking this process. When OBV diverges from the price action, it is often an early reversal signal. The second leg of the 2021 bull run was a great example. While BTC price was hitting higher highs of $68,000 (compared to the previous all-time high of $63,170), trading volumes moved in a different direction, decreasing from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a bearish divergence between price and volume, suggesting that fewer market participants were supporting the rally — a classic sign of waning momentum.

As market cycle tops approach, long-term holders and Bitcoin miners often start locking in profits. Some valuable metrics that can track it are the Puell Multiple and exchange flows. The Puell Multiple Indicator looks at miners' revenue relative to its 365-day average. High readings indicate miners may start selling aggressively, and are often seen near market tops. Large inflows to exchanges are usually signs of distribution, as investors prepare to sell their coins. Individually, these indicators can mark various shifts in market trends. Combined, they often align with cycle tops.

Historic price activity observations might also come in handy. Crypto market analyst Cole Garner shared his exit playbook based on whales’ behavior. His roadmap includes three steps: Euphoria, where Bitcoin moves vertically for weeks, with massive $10,000+ daily candles; Whiplash, where Bitcoin experiences its sharpest correction of the bull cycle, breaking the curved parabolic trendline that’s supported the rally; and Complacency, where one measures 15% below Bitcoin’s all-time high. That’s the sell zone. Order books on major exchanges often show a wall of sell orders around this level — a likely institutional exit point. According to Garner, the 15% (or 16%) rule works not only in crypto but in traditional markets as well.

No single indicator can pinpoint the exact moment to exit, especially in a shifting macro environment. But when multiple signals align, they become hard to ignore. The final leg of a Bitcoin bull market is thrilling, but knowing when the music might stop is key to locking in profits.