Bitcoin's Wave IV Correction: Strategic Entry Points Amid Liquidity Shifts and Whale Activity

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has sparked renewed debate among traders and analysts about the interplay between technical corrections and macroeconomic catalysts. As the market navigates a complex Wave IV correction within a broader five-wave bullish structure, strategic entry points are emerging for investors who can align technical signals with macro-level trends. This analysis synthesizes Elliott Wave theory, institutional flows, and on-chain dynamics to outline a compelling case for positioning ahead of a potential Wave V rally.

Technical Analysis: Wave IV as a Catalyst for Reversal

The Elliott Wave framework suggests Bitcoin is currently in the fourth leg of a five-wave corrective sequence, following a bearish phase that began on October 6, 2025. This Wave IV correction has historically acted as a trap for traders misinterpreting consolidation as a reversal, but Fibonacci retracement levels and MACD divergence offer critical clues for identifying key support zones. According to a report by ActionForex, Bitcoin's Wave IV is expected to retrace 38.2%–50% of the decline from its November 3 peak, with a consistent close above $93,381 serving as confirmation of a resumption into Wave V.

Technical indicators further reinforce this narrative. The MACD, a momentum oscillator, has historically signaled significant rebounds after hitting oversold levels. For instance, MACD lows in May 2021 and March 2025 preceded price surges of 96% and 60%, respectively. If Bitcoin's current Wave IV completes its corrective pattern, the asset could see a sharp rebound into Wave V, potentially targeting $125,000–$160,000 by early 2027.

Macroeconomic Positioning: Liquidity Shifts and Whale Accumulation

While technical analysis provides a roadmap for price action, macroeconomic factors are shaping Bitcoin's liquidity environment and institutional adoption. Data from Spectrum Search indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $57 billion in cumulative inflows as of December 2025, with Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) alone capturing $391 million in a single week. These inflows reflect institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive asset, particularly amid expectations of U.S. monetary policy easing.

Whale activity further underscores this bullish narrative. On-chain analytics reveal that Bitcoin whales netted 47,584 BTC in December 2025 after offloading 113,070 BTC between October and November. This accumulation, as noted by MEXC, signals growing confidence among large holders and often precedes market stabilization. Meanwhile, retail investors continue to buy dips, creating a "blue zone" dynamic where both whales and retail participants are net buyers. This balanced environment, however, suggests a market poised for explosive growth rather than immediate hyperactivity.

Regulatory developments have also bolstered Bitcoin's macroeconomic positioning. In early 2025, President Trump's executive order establishing a U.S. "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and the OCC's authorization for federally chartered banks to custody cryptocurrencies have institutionalized Bitcoin's role in capital portfolios. These moves, combined with ongoing rate cuts, reinforce Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against fiat debasement.

Strategic Entry Points: Converging Signals

The convergence of technical and macroeconomic signals creates a compelling case for strategic entry points. Key support levels at $93,381 and $88,000 (based on Fibonacci retracements) offer high-probability areas for Wave IV completion. A break above $95,000 would alleviate structural selling pressure, as 6.7 million BTC are still held at a loss, according to Spectrum Search.

Investors should also monitor ETF inflows and whale activity as leading indicators. A sustained surge in institutional capital or a sharp increase in whale accumulation could signal the transition from Wave IV to Wave V. Given the historical precedent of MACD-driven rebounds and the current alignment of technical and macroeconomic factors, the risk-reward profile for entering near these levels appears favorable.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's Wave IV correction is not merely a technical phenomenon but a confluence of market structure, liquidity shifts, and institutional adoption. As the asset navigates this critical phase, investors who align Fibonacci retracements with ETF inflows and whale accumulation are well-positioned to capitalize on the impending Wave V rally. The coming months will test whether Bitcoin can break above $95,000 to confirm its bullish trajectory, but the macroeconomic tailwinds and technical setup suggest a high probability of success.