Bitcoin's Wave III Rally: A Confluence of Technical and Macroeconomic Catalysts

Bitcoin's price action in 2025 has painted a compelling narrative for a potential Wave III rally, a pivotal phase in the Elliott Wave framework where momentum and institutional participation typically accelerate. With the cryptocurrency now testing critical resistance levels and macroeconomic tailwinds aligning, the stage is set for a reevaluation of its long-term price trajectory.

Technical Foundations: Resistance Levels and Institutional Dynamics

Bitcoin's recent price behavior has been tightly correlated with its 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of $102,055 and exponential moving average (EMA) of $99,924. These levels have acted as dynamic barriers, with the price breaching both during the April 2025 "tariff tantrum" before rebounding, as noted by CoinDesk. The repeated testing of these averages suggests a maturing bull cycle, where institutional selling pressure-driven by long-term holders reducing holdings from 14.7 million to 14.4 million BTC since July 2025-has historically triggered 10%+ corrections, as reported by Yahoo Finance. However, the resilience post-correction indicates a shift in market structure, with buyers stepping in at key levels to absorb selling.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: ETF Inflows and Rate Expectations

The macroeconomic landscape has further amplified Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against uncertainty. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of $60.49 billion as of November 2025, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone attracting $224 million in a single day, as reported by CoinFomania. This surge reflects institutional confidence, particularly as markets anticipate a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in early 2026. Bitcoin's role as a non-correlated asset in inflationary environments has become increasingly attractive, contrasting with Ethereum's short-term struggles due to its complex staking and fee dynamics, as reported by CoinFomania.

Projecting the $240K Target: Fibonacci Extensions and Wave Multiples

While direct technical analysis for a $240K target remains elusive, historical wave multiples and Fibonacci extensions offer a framework for speculation. If Wave III follows the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio relative to Wave I (which reached $76,500 in April 2025), the projected extension would align with $240K. Additionally, the 365-day SMA/EMA's role as a psychological barrier suggests that a breakout above $102,055 could trigger a parabolic move, leveraging the momentum of institutional inflows and macroeconomic positioning, as noted by Bitget.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Forces

Bitcoin's potential Wave III rally to $240K hinges on the interplay of technical resilience and macroeconomic catalysts. The repeated validation of key resistance levels, coupled with record ETF inflows and a shifting interest rate environment, creates a self-reinforcing cycle of demand. While the $240K target remains speculative, the alignment of these factors underscores a high-probability scenario for a sustained bullish phase. Investors should monitor the 365-day SMA/EMA as a critical inflection point, with Fibonacci extensions providing a roadmap for the next leg higher.