Bitcoin's Wave 4 Completion and the Implications for a Wave 5 Bull Run

Bitcoin's recent price action has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts about the completion of Elliott Wave 4 and the potential setup for a Wave 5 bull run. As of November 2025, the cryptocurrency has navigated a volatile correction phase, with institutional investors increasingly positioning themselves for the next leg of the upward trend. By combining technical analysis-specifically Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci retracement levels-with on-chain and funding data, we can begin to map out the implications for Bitcoin's next chapter.

The Technical Case for Wave 4 Completion

Bitcoin's price peaked at $106,453 on November 11, 2025, before entering a sharp correction that saw it drop over 20% to a low of $80,600 by late November. This decline aligns with the structure of a classic Elliott Wave 4 correction, which typically follows a strong Wave 3 (the impulsive bullish phase). According to a report by FXStreet, the subsequent rebound-pushing Bitcoin above $87,700 by November 18-suggests a potential completion of Wave 4, with the market now poised for Wave 5.

Elliott Wave analysts have identified a three-wave recovery pattern (labeled as Wave 4's corrective structure), indicating that sellers have been absorbed after this bounce. While Fibonacci retracement levels are not explicitly cited in the data, the price action suggests key psychological and technical thresholds. For instance, the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of the Wave 3 move (from $60k to $106k) would fall around $87k and $90k, respectively. A sustained break above $90k could confirm the completion of Wave 4 and signal the start of Wave 5, a final bullish thrust.

Institutional Positioning and Wave 5 Setup

The technical narrative is reinforced by institutional activity. In November 2025, major institutional investors injected $72 million into Canaan Inc and Switzerland's FUTURE raised CHF 28 million (approx. $34 million) to build a "premier Bitcoin treasury" according to Bitcoin Magazine. These investments reflect growing confidence in Bitcoin's infrastructure and its role as a strategic asset.

Such capital flows are critical for Wave 5 setups. Historically, institutional participation intensifies during Wave 5 as the market transitions from retail-driven speculation to institutional accumulation. The funding of mining infrastructure and treasury services not only strengthens Bitcoin's security and scalability but also signals a shift toward long-term holding strategies. This aligns with the Elliott Wave principle that Wave 5 often lacks the explosive momentum of Wave 3 but is characterized by sustained, fundamentals-driven growth.

The Confluence of Technical and Fundamental Drivers

The interplay between technical analysis and institutional behavior creates a compelling case for Wave 5. If Bitcoin continues its recovery and breaches $90k, it would validate both the Elliott Wave count and the Fibonacci retracement levels as tools for predicting institutional positioning. Moreover, the recent investments in mining and treasury services suggest that institutions are hedging against potential volatility while preparing for a prolonged bull phase.

However, risks remain. A failure to hold above $86k could retrigger Wave 4 corrections, extending the consolidation phase. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio and funding rates for additional signals.

Conclusion: Preparing for Wave 5

Bitcoin's technical and institutional landscapes are converging toward a Wave 5 bull run. The completion of Wave 4, supported by Fibonacci retracement levels and institutional capital flows, indicates that the market is transitioning into a phase of structured accumulation. For investors, this represents an opportunity to align with long-term trends while remaining mindful of short-term volatility. As the saying goes in technical analysis: "The trend is your friend." In Bitcoin's case, the trend may just be getting started.