Bitcoin Waits: Rate-Cut Hopes Build, But Bulls Stay on the Sidelines

Bitcoin remains rangebound between $108,000 and $112,000, consolidating after reaching a peak of $124,474 in mid-August [4]. Despite rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 17 meeting—spurred by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data—crypto markets have shown little reaction to the developing macroeconomic narrative [1]. The Nonfarm Payrolls report for August added only 22,000 jobs, far below the 75,000 forecast, and pushed up the odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut to 16% on prediction markets like Polymarket [4]. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 100% probability of rate easing at this month’s meeting [4]. However, Bitcoin’s price action has remained cautious, with analysts noting a shift in options markets toward defensive positioning [3]. Skews for both BTC and ETH have moved lower across 7- and 30-day tenors, signaling stronger demand for put options as traders hedge against potential downside [4].

Derive.xyz analysts highlight that a September rate cut could catalyze historically strong returns in Q4, a period in which Bitcoin has historically outperformed other quarters [4]. According to CoinGlass data, BTC typically sees its strongest gains in October and November [4]. The seasonal strength is further supported by historically dovish monetary environments, which tend to weaken the U.S. dollar and compress real yields—conditions that have historically supported Bitcoin’s performance [4]. Bitfinex analysts have pointed to several catalysts, including the expansion of Treasury buyback operations in longer-dated maturities, which could help cap spikes in the “term premium,” an extra yield investors demand for longer-term bonds [4]. Together, these dynamics suggest that a dovish Fed and orderly Treasury supply could set the stage for a Q4 rally.

On-chain and institutional data also indicate a nuanced market environment. While spot bitcoin ETFs added $368 million in flows on Sept. 8, spot ether ETFs saw $96.7 million in net outflows, extending a week of redemptions [4]. However, staking demand and net exchange withdrawals of roughly 396,000 ETH over the week suggest continued institutional and retail accumulation [4]. Ethereum has been trading within a tight consolidation range of $4,232 to $4,488, with its RSI hovering near the neutral 50 level, indicating indecisiveness among traders [2]. XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has found support near its 100-day EMA at $2.77 and has seen early strength amid improving momentum indicators [2].

Market sentiment is also being shaped by regulatory and institutional developments. Derive’s Dr. Sean Dawson noted that weaker labor data has increased rate-cut expectations and influenced option pricing [4]. Meanwhile, Enflux, a market maker, highlighted that the SEC’s forward-looking rules for token sales and listings, alongside institutional entries such as Coinbase into major indices, signal the growing legitimacy of crypto as part of the broader financial ecosystem [3]. The inclusion of Robinhood in the S&P 500 over Michael Saylor’s Strategy underscores how crypto-adjacent firms with diversified business models may gain blue-chip recognition faster than pure-play treasury firms [3].

Looking ahead, the focus remains on macroeconomic data. The upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday will be critical in determining the Fed’s next move and, by extension, the trajectory of Bitcoin and other risk assets [4]. Analysts at Mitrade and PlanC have emphasized the need for price confirmation at key levels before assuming bullish outcomes. A sustained close above $110K–$112K and a break above $117K–$118K on rising volume could signal a continuation higher, while a decisive close below $110K would open the door to a potential pullback toward $100K [5]. In a range-bound environment, some investors have considered rotating into altcoins showing relative strength and identifiable catalysts, such as Pepeto, which has seen strong presale performance and utility-driven use cases [5].

Source:

[1] title1 (https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-price-today-subdued-near-111k-despite-rising-fed-cut-bets-4228121)

[2] title2 (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1103233-20250908)

[3] title3 (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/09/asia-morning-briefing-equities-rally-on-rate-cut-bets-crypto-stays-cautious)

[4] title4 (https://www.theblock.co/post/370007/bitcoin-stays-rangebound-with-bulls-looking-to-rate-cuts-and-q4-seasonality-analyst)

[5] title5 (https://blockchainreporter.net/bitcoin-price-prediction-why-a-q4-moonshot-isnt-guaranteed/)